Buy-Low and Sell-High | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

Features

The latest fantasy hockey advice and analysis.

Buy-Low and Sell-High

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Carter Hutton 0.9164 653 531 0.9403 0.9473
Curtis McElhinney 0.9073 308 249 0.9318 0.9398

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9127 372 46 0.9032 0.9348 0.8943
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9128 764 113 0.9319 0.9292 0.9212
Charlie Lindgren 0.9288 250 41 0.9240 0.9268 0.9180
Aaron Dell 0.9229 648 94 0.9167 0.9255 0.9075
Tristan Jarry 0.9175 472 75 0.9195 0.9200 0.9108
Semyon Varlamov 0.9157 935 161 0.9144 0.9193 0.9090
Carter Hutton 0.9164 653 95 0.9403 0.9158 0.9343
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9149 1401 255 0.9222 0.9137 0.9164
John Gibson 0.9218 1364 247 0.9223 0.9109 0.9158
Petr Mrazek 0.9121 564 86 0.9060 0.8372 0.9133
Philipp Grubauer 0.9206 481 89 0.9127 0.8315 0.9214
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9199 1421 185 0.9205 0.8270 0.9242
Maxime Lagace 0.8721 383 69 0.8721 0.8261 0.8825
Jacob Markstrom 0.9061 1244 165 0.9076 0.8242 0.9127
Scott Wedgewood 0.9033 587 51 0.8927 0.8235 0.8981
Scott Darling 0.9143 838 94 0.8938 0.8191 0.8992
Michal Neuvirth 0.9117 469 63 0.9147 0.8095 0.9255
Brian Elliott 0.9128 1189 152 0.9083 0.8092 0.9169
Cam Talbot 0.9180 1257 179 0.9006 0.7989 0.9094
Antti Niemi 0.9122 311 51 0.8875 0.7647 0.9042
Mike Condon 0.9063 590 84 0.8983 0.7619 0.9140
Laurent Brossoit 0.8985 334 50 0.8862 0.7600 0.9055
Louis Domingue 0.9055 341 54 0.8768 0.7593 0.8986
Peter Budaj 0.9042 213 42 0.8779 0.7381 0.9083
Al Montoya 0.9082 207 28 0.8792 0.7143 0.9026
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2017-2018 save percentage
EVSV%
2017-2018 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2017-2018 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2017-2018 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill