Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

March 1, 2018 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Darcy Kuemper	0.9130	543	438	0.9300	0.9406
Carter Hutton	0.9158	737	601	0.9349	0.9401
Curtis McElhinney	0.9074	368	299	0.9293	0.9398

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9127	372	46	0.9032	0.9348	0.8943
Charlie Lindgren	0.9351	283	42	0.9329	0.9286	0.9259
Tristan Jarry	0.9145	525	82	0.9162	0.9268	0.9066
Aaron Dell	0.9201	694	100	0.9121	0.9200	0.9034
Carter Hutton	0.9158	737	108	0.9349	0.9167	0.9286
John Gibson	0.9226	1459	262	0.9246	0.9122	0.9178
Juuse Saros	0.9237	555	90	0.9261	0.9111	0.9190
Semyon Varlamov	0.9156	1149	190	0.9130	0.9105	0.9089
Connor Hellebuyck	0.9150	1557	301	0.9216	0.9103	0.9164
Petr Mrazek	0.9131	706	98	0.9136	0.8367	0.9182
Maxime Lagace	0.8717	413	79	0.8717	0.8354	0.8807
Philipp Grubauer	0.9225	637	103	0.9215	0.8350	0.9271
Anders Nilsson	0.9069	724	120	0.9019	0.8333	0.9089
Sergei Bobrovsky	0.9199	1579	204	0.9202	0.8333	0.9230
Jacob Markstrom	0.9065	1326	178	0.9087	0.8258	0.9137
Cam Talbot	0.9180	1487	210	0.9032	0.8238	0.9086
Scott Wedgewood	0.9033	587	51	0.8927	0.8235	0.8981
Scott Darling	0.9125	914	101	0.8895	0.8218	0.8945
Michal Neuvirth	0.9118	519	63	0.9152	0.8095	0.9239
Brian Elliott	0.9128	1189	152	0.9083	0.8092	0.9169
Antti Niemi	0.9123	416	77	0.8966	0.7922	0.9107
Eddie Lack	0.9089	177	37	0.8701	0.7838	0.9028
Mike Condon	0.9065	650	87	0.9000	0.7701	0.9132
Louis Domingue	0.9057	377	59	0.8806	0.7627	0.9010
Laurent Brossoit	0.8985	334	50	0.8862	0.7600	0.9055
Peter Budaj	0.9042	213	42	0.8779	0.7381	0.9083
Al Montoya	0.9080	253	30	0.8814	0.7000	0.9025

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2017-2018 save percentage

EVSV%: 2017-2018 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2017-2018 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2017-2018 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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