Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Darcy Kuemper 0.9130 543 438 0.9300 0.9406
Carter Hutton 0.9158 737 601 0.9349 0.9401
Curtis McElhinney 0.9074 368 299 0.9293 0.9398

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9127 372 46 0.9032 0.9348 0.8943
Charlie Lindgren 0.9351 283 42 0.9329 0.9286 0.9259
Tristan Jarry 0.9145 525 82 0.9162 0.9268 0.9066
Aaron Dell 0.9201 694 100 0.9121 0.9200 0.9034
Carter Hutton 0.9158 737 108 0.9349 0.9167 0.9286
John Gibson 0.9226 1459 262 0.9246 0.9122 0.9178
Juuse Saros 0.9237 555 90 0.9261 0.9111 0.9190
Semyon Varlamov 0.9156 1149 190 0.9130 0.9105 0.9089
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9150 1557 301 0.9216 0.9103 0.9164
Petr Mrazek 0.9131 706 98 0.9136 0.8367 0.9182
Maxime Lagace 0.8717 413 79 0.8717 0.8354 0.8807
Philipp Grubauer 0.9225 637 103 0.9215 0.8350 0.9271
Anders Nilsson 0.9069 724 120 0.9019 0.8333 0.9089
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9199 1579 204 0.9202 0.8333 0.9230
Jacob Markstrom 0.9065 1326 178 0.9087 0.8258 0.9137
Cam Talbot 0.9180 1487 210 0.9032 0.8238 0.9086
Scott Wedgewood 0.9033 587 51 0.8927 0.8235 0.8981
Scott Darling 0.9125 914 101 0.8895 0.8218 0.8945
Michal Neuvirth 0.9118 519 63 0.9152 0.8095 0.9239
Brian Elliott 0.9128 1189 152 0.9083 0.8092 0.9169
Antti Niemi 0.9123 416 77 0.8966 0.7922 0.9107
Eddie Lack 0.9089 177 37 0.8701 0.7838 0.9028
Mike Condon 0.9065 650 87 0.9000 0.7701 0.9132
Louis Domingue 0.9057 377 59 0.8806 0.7627 0.9010
Laurent Brossoit 0.8985 334 50 0.8862 0.7600 0.9055
Peter Budaj 0.9042 213 42 0.8779 0.7381 0.9083
Al Montoya 0.9080 253 30 0.8814 0.7000 0.9025
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2017-2018 save percentage
EVSV%
2017-2018 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2017-2018 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2017-2018 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill