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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

March 22, 2018   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments


Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Curtis McElhinney0.90844653780.93550.9471
Pekka Rinne0.9189167513480.93070.9414

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

John Gibson0.923417302910.92660.91750.9191
Carter Hutton0.91577711080.93390.91670.9274
Christopher Gibson0.9179187240.93580.91670.9269
Semyon Varlamov0.916314762350.91940.91490.9138
Joonas Korpisalo0.9117509700.90180.91430.8968
Connor Hellebuyck0.916818333460.92470.91330.9185
Chad Johnson0.91177611120.89620.83930.9029
Jake Allen0.912714002030.90570.83740.9112
Charlie Lindgren0.9136457730.90810.83560.9168
Antti Niemi0.91276161190.91070.83190.9184
Jacob Markstrom0.906615552130.90870.83100.9132
Maxime Lagace0.8674430810.86740.82720.8775
Petr Mrazek0.91079431250.90140.82400.9079
Scott Wedgewood0.9033587510.89270.82350.8981
Casey DeSmith0.9128321450.91280.82220.9179
J-F Berube0.8991312540.89740.81480.9104
Michal Neuvirth0.9118519630.91520.80950.9239
Brian Elliott0.912811891520.90830.80920.9169
Scott Darling0.910110361080.88510.80560.8913
Louis Domingue0.9064471820.88960.80490.9041
Eddie Lack0.9089177370.87010.78380.9028
Mike Condon0.90738171050.90450.78100.9153
Laurent Brossoit0.8985334500.88620.76000.9055
Peter Budaj0.9041217420.87560.73810.9052
Al Montoya0.9081333390.88890.71790.9064


CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2017-2018 save percentage

EVSV%: 2017-2018 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2017-2018 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2017-2018 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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