Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

March 22, 2018 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Curtis McElhinney	0.9084	465	378	0.9355	0.9471
Pekka Rinne	0.9189	1675	1348	0.9307	0.9414

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
John Gibson	0.9234	1730	291	0.9266	0.9175	0.9191
Carter Hutton	0.9157	771	108	0.9339	0.9167	0.9274
Christopher Gibson	0.9179	187	24	0.9358	0.9167	0.9269
Semyon Varlamov	0.9163	1476	235	0.9194	0.9149	0.9138
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9117	509	70	0.9018	0.9143	0.8968
Connor Hellebuyck	0.9168	1833	346	0.9247	0.9133	0.9185
Chad Johnson	0.9117	761	112	0.8962	0.8393	0.9029
Jake Allen	0.9127	1400	203	0.9057	0.8374	0.9112
Charlie Lindgren	0.9136	457	73	0.9081	0.8356	0.9168
Antti Niemi	0.9127	616	119	0.9107	0.8319	0.9184
Jacob Markstrom	0.9066	1555	213	0.9087	0.8310	0.9132
Maxime Lagace	0.8674	430	81	0.8674	0.8272	0.8775
Petr Mrazek	0.9107	943	125	0.9014	0.8240	0.9079
Scott Wedgewood	0.9033	587	51	0.8927	0.8235	0.8981
Casey DeSmith	0.9128	321	45	0.9128	0.8222	0.9179
J-F Berube	0.8991	312	54	0.8974	0.8148	0.9104
Michal Neuvirth	0.9118	519	63	0.9152	0.8095	0.9239
Brian Elliott	0.9128	1189	152	0.9083	0.8092	0.9169
Scott Darling	0.9101	1036	108	0.8851	0.8056	0.8913
Louis Domingue	0.9064	471	82	0.8896	0.8049	0.9041
Eddie Lack	0.9089	177	37	0.8701	0.7838	0.9028
Mike Condon	0.9073	817	105	0.9045	0.7810	0.9153
Laurent Brossoit	0.8985	334	50	0.8862	0.7600	0.9055
Peter Budaj	0.9041	217	42	0.8756	0.7381	0.9052
Al Montoya	0.9081	333	39	0.8889	0.7179	0.9064

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2017-2018 save percentage

EVSV%: 2017-2018 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2017-2018 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2017-2018 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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