Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Curtis McElhinney 0.9084 465 378 0.9355 0.9471
Pekka Rinne 0.9189 1675 1348 0.9307 0.9414

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
John Gibson 0.9234 1730 291 0.9266 0.9175 0.9191
Carter Hutton 0.9157 771 108 0.9339 0.9167 0.9274
Christopher Gibson 0.9179 187 24 0.9358 0.9167 0.9269
Semyon Varlamov 0.9163 1476 235 0.9194 0.9149 0.9138
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9117 509 70 0.9018 0.9143 0.8968
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9168 1833 346 0.9247 0.9133 0.9185
Chad Johnson 0.9117 761 112 0.8962 0.8393 0.9029
Jake Allen 0.9127 1400 203 0.9057 0.8374 0.9112
Charlie Lindgren 0.9136 457 73 0.9081 0.8356 0.9168
Antti Niemi 0.9127 616 119 0.9107 0.8319 0.9184
Jacob Markstrom 0.9066 1555 213 0.9087 0.8310 0.9132
Maxime Lagace 0.8674 430 81 0.8674 0.8272 0.8775
Petr Mrazek 0.9107 943 125 0.9014 0.8240 0.9079
Scott Wedgewood 0.9033 587 51 0.8927 0.8235 0.8981
Casey DeSmith 0.9128 321 45 0.9128 0.8222 0.9179
J-F Berube 0.8991 312 54 0.8974 0.8148 0.9104
Michal Neuvirth 0.9118 519 63 0.9152 0.8095 0.9239
Brian Elliott 0.9128 1189 152 0.9083 0.8092 0.9169
Scott Darling 0.9101 1036 108 0.8851 0.8056 0.8913
Louis Domingue 0.9064 471 82 0.8896 0.8049 0.9041
Eddie Lack 0.9089 177 37 0.8701 0.7838 0.9028
Mike Condon 0.9073 817 105 0.9045 0.7810 0.9153
Laurent Brossoit 0.8985 334 50 0.8862 0.7600 0.9055
Peter Budaj 0.9041 217 42 0.8756 0.7381 0.9052
Al Montoya 0.9081 333 39 0.8889 0.7179 0.9064
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2017-2018 save percentage
EVSV%
2017-2018 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2017-2018 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2017-2018 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill