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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

October 18, 2018   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments


Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

John Gibson0.92422131680.94840.9643
Pekka Rinne0.91881231020.94310.9608
Henrik Lundqvist0.91942011640.93030.9573
Jack Campbell0.91711531210.92160.9421
Devan Dubnyk0.91691991520.93970.9408

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Andrei Vasilevskiy0.9180101310.95051.00000.9160
Semyon Varlamov0.9168173520.94800.98080.9223
John Gibson0.9242213390.94840.92310.9479
Devan Dubnyk0.9169199380.93970.92110.9292
Mike Smith0.9128135240.88890.83330.9004
Marc-Andre Fleury0.9130144240.89580.83330.9007
Jack Campbell0.9171153280.92160.82140.9303
Henrik Lundqvist0.9194201290.93030.79310.9424
Cam Ward0.9087173240.87860.75000.8972


CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2018-2019 save percentage

EVSV%: 2018-2019 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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