Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
John Gibson 0.9242 213 168 0.9484 0.9643
Pekka Rinne 0.9188 123 102 0.9431 0.9608
Henrik Lundqvist 0.9194 201 164 0.9303 0.9573
Jack Campbell 0.9171 153 121 0.9216 0.9421
Devan Dubnyk 0.9169 199 152 0.9397 0.9408

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9180 101 31 0.9505 1.0000 0.9160
Semyon Varlamov 0.9168 173 52 0.9480 0.9808 0.9223
John Gibson 0.9242 213 39 0.9484 0.9231 0.9479
Devan Dubnyk 0.9169 199 38 0.9397 0.9211 0.9292
Mike Smith 0.9128 135 24 0.8889 0.8333 0.9004
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9130 144 24 0.8958 0.8333 0.9007
Jack Campbell 0.9171 153 28 0.9216 0.8214 0.9303
Henrik Lundqvist 0.9194 201 29 0.9303 0.7931 0.9424
Cam Ward 0.9087 173 24 0.8786 0.7500 0.8972
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2018-2019 save percentage
EVSV%
2018-2019 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill