Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Cal Petersen 0.9239 355 283 0.9239 0.9505
Ryan Miller 0.9154 294 241 0.9218 0.9461
Pekka Rinne 0.9188 689 565 0.9245 0.9416
Jaroslav Halak 0.9164 633 497 0.9305 0.9416
Laurent Brossoit 0.9108 342 289 0.9386 0.9412

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Devan Dubnyk 0.9163 808 134 0.9134 0.9403 0.9018
Casey DeSmith 0.9242 700 88 0.9257 0.9318 0.9212
Mike McKenna 0.8928 254 43 0.9016 0.9302 0.8868
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9184 569 113 0.9279 0.9292 0.9159
Darcy Kuemper 0.9118 495 54 0.9111 0.9259 0.9002
Linus Ullmark 0.9191 450 52 0.9222 0.9231 0.9165
Laurent Brossoit 0.9108 342 47 0.9386 0.9149 0.9295
Garret Sparks 0.8977 238 23 0.9076 0.9130 0.9011
Martin Jones 0.9139 739 90 0.8985 0.9111 0.8915
Ben Bishop 0.9189 664 78 0.9232 0.9103 0.9146
David Rittich 0.9135 519 69 0.9229 0.8406 0.9263
Adin Hill 0.9086 232 25 0.9181 0.8400 0.9160
Anton Khudobin 0.9150 452 75 0.9115 0.8400 0.9154
Henrik Lundqvist 0.9191 867 130 0.9146 0.8385 0.9181
Frederik Andersen 0.9184 965 111 0.9233 0.8378 0.9248
Ryan Miller 0.9154 294 47 0.9218 0.8298 0.9334
Brian Elliott 0.9128 384 64 0.9115 0.8281 0.9211
Pheonix Copley 0.9040 340 51 0.9118 0.8235 0.9178
Philipp Grubauer 0.9196 459 73 0.8998 0.8219 0.9065
Mike Smith 0.9122 520 67 0.8885 0.8209 0.8953
Scott Darling 0.9084 233 22 0.8841 0.8182 0.8860
Matt Murray 0.9147 429 60 0.8998 0.8167 0.9112
Curtis McElhinney 0.9092 355 37 0.9183 0.8108 0.9183
Malcolm Subban 0.8994 159 21 0.8805 0.8095 0.8857
Braden Holtby 0.9190 775 107 0.9135 0.8037 0.9221
Aaron Dell 0.9172 334 39 0.9042 0.7949 0.9090
Cal Petersen 0.9239 355 58 0.9239 0.7931 0.9369
Petr Mrazek 0.9096 381 48 0.8976 0.7917 0.9103
James Reimer 0.9134 509 66 0.8880 0.7879 0.9008
Anders Nilsson 0.9059 330 47 0.9000 0.7872 0.9126
Calvin Pickard 0.9089 227 40 0.8634 0.7750 0.8882
Antti Niemi 0.9120 266 47 0.8759 0.7660 0.8977
Cam Ward 0.9084 555 76 0.8865 0.7632 0.9028
Cam Talbot 0.9164 556 67 0.8939 0.7612 0.9074
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2018-2019 save percentage
EVSV%
2018-2019 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill