Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Cal Petersen 0.9239 355 283 0.9239 0.9505
Laurent Brossoit 0.9144 421 351 0.9430 0.9487
Ryan Miller 0.9154 294 241 0.9218 0.9461
Jordan Binnington 0.9208 198 171 0.9242 0.9415
Robin Lehner 0.9171 756 634 0.9312 0.9401

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Collin Delia 0.9182 365 55 0.9233 0.9273 0.9138
Devan Dubnyk 0.9162 1151 192 0.9131 0.9219 0.9044
Laurent Brossoit 0.9144 421 63 0.9430 0.9206 0.9355
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9185 928 163 0.9246 0.9202 0.9145
Darcy Kuemper 0.9124 794 87 0.9144 0.9195 0.9052
Mike McKenna 0.8904 316 47 0.8924 0.9149 0.8822
Jack Campbell 0.9256 475 68 0.9305 0.9118 0.9219
Casey DeSmith 0.9184 821 100 0.9172 0.9100 0.9157
Jimmy Howard 0.9148 1068 167 0.9157 0.8383 0.9214
Henrik Lundqvist 0.9188 1135 178 0.9084 0.8371 0.9130
David Rittich 0.9126 828 108 0.9179 0.8333 0.9208
Jordan Binnington 0.9208 198 24 0.9242 0.8333 0.9298
Pheonix Copley 0.8984 536 77 0.9030 0.8312 0.9092
Ryan Miller 0.9154 294 47 0.9218 0.8298 0.9334
Pekka Rinne 0.9184 977 123 0.9150 0.8293 0.9208
Brian Elliott 0.9128 384 64 0.9115 0.8281 0.9211
James Reimer 0.9135 696 87 0.8966 0.8276 0.9026
Scott Darling 0.9084 233 22 0.8841 0.8182 0.8860
Braden Holtby 0.9180 1072 148 0.9049 0.8176 0.9113
Curtis McElhinney 0.9091 523 60 0.9140 0.8167 0.9164
Anders Nilsson 0.9068 556 75 0.9083 0.8133 0.9149
Michael Hutchinson 0.9077 239 32 0.8870 0.8125 0.8970
Antti Niemi 0.9120 479 78 0.8935 0.8077 0.9048
Aaron Dell 0.9132 432 57 0.8912 0.8070 0.8988
Jonathan Quick 0.9159 716 88 0.9036 0.8068 0.9142
Cam Talbot 0.9159 755 92 0.8940 0.8043 0.9034
Philipp Grubauer 0.9173 589 97 0.8913 0.8041 0.9033
Mike Smith 0.9121 636 81 0.8884 0.8025 0.8962
Michal Neuvirth 0.9104 184 30 0.8587 0.8000 0.8686
Petr Mrazek 0.9088 605 83 0.8942 0.7952 0.9074
Cal Petersen 0.9239 355 58 0.9239 0.7931 0.9369
Cam Ward 0.9083 685 91 0.8876 0.7582 0.9030
Calvin Pickard 0.9090 251 41 0.8685 0.7561 0.8926
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2018-2019 save percentage
EVSV%
2018-2019 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill