Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Cal Petersen 0.9239 355 283 0.9239 0.9505
Ryan Miller 0.9154 294 241 0.9218 0.9461
Laurent Brossoit 0.9141 452 375 0.9403 0.9440
Jordan Binnington 0.9187 242 209 0.9215 0.9426

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Laurent Brossoit 0.9141 452 69 0.9403 0.9275 0.9317
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9188 1023 174 0.9257 0.9253 0.9149
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9263 353 49 0.9263 0.9184 0.9161
Anthony Stolarz 0.9089 280 36 0.8964 0.9167 0.8939
Jack Campbell 0.9274 505 71 0.9327 0.9155 0.9232
Devan Dubnyk 0.9162 1221 201 0.9132 0.9154 0.9055
Collin Delia 0.9172 396 59 0.9217 0.9153 0.9141
Mike McKenna 0.8904 316 47 0.8924 0.9149 0.8822
David Rittich 0.9128 865 112 0.9179 0.8393 0.9199
Henrik Lundqvist 0.9186 1210 190 0.9058 0.8368 0.9103
Alex Stalock 0.9086 332 61 0.8916 0.8361 0.8957
Pekka Rinne 0.9183 1029 128 0.9145 0.8359 0.9189
James Reimer 0.9137 765 90 0.9007 0.8333 0.9051
Braden Holtby 0.9182 1173 161 0.9079 0.8323 0.9122
Pheonix Copley 0.8984 536 77 0.9030 0.8312 0.9092
Ryan Miller 0.9154 294 47 0.9218 0.8298 0.9334
Brian Elliott 0.9128 384 64 0.9115 0.8281 0.9211
Curtis McElhinney 0.9095 546 63 0.9176 0.8254 0.9190
Anders Nilsson 0.9064 596 80 0.9060 0.8250 0.9112
Jonathan Quick 0.9158 774 94 0.9031 0.8191 0.9117
Scott Darling 0.9084 233 22 0.8841 0.8182 0.8860
Mike Smith 0.9120 676 91 0.8891 0.8132 0.8962
Michael Hutchinson 0.9077 239 32 0.8870 0.8125 0.8970
Philipp Grubauer 0.9166 625 106 0.8896 0.8113 0.9006
Aaron Dell 0.9132 432 57 0.8912 0.8070 0.8988
Antti Niemi 0.9120 506 82 0.8933 0.8049 0.9048
Michal Neuvirth 0.9104 184 30 0.8587 0.8000 0.8686
Jordan Binnington 0.9187 242 30 0.9215 0.8000 0.9306
Cal Petersen 0.9239 355 58 0.9239 0.7931 0.9369
Petr Mrazek 0.9087 662 91 0.8943 0.7912 0.9087
Cam Talbot 0.9155 821 109 0.8916 0.7890 0.9040
Calvin Pickard 0.9090 297 52 0.8754 0.7885 0.8949
Cam Ward 0.9083 755 112 0.8914 0.7768 0.9061
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2018-2019 save percentage
EVSV%
2018-2019 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill