Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

February 7, 2019 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Cal Petersen	0.9239	355	283	0.9239	0.9505
Ryan Miller	0.9154	294	241	0.9218	0.9461
Laurent Brossoit	0.9141	452	375	0.9403	0.9440
Jordan Binnington	0.9187	242	209	0.9215	0.9426

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Laurent Brossoit	0.9141	452	69	0.9403	0.9275	0.9317
Andrei Vasilevskiy	0.9188	1023	174	0.9257	0.9253	0.9149
Mackenzie Blackwood	0.9263	353	49	0.9263	0.9184	0.9161
Anthony Stolarz	0.9089	280	36	0.8964	0.9167	0.8939
Jack Campbell	0.9274	505	71	0.9327	0.9155	0.9232
Devan Dubnyk	0.9162	1221	201	0.9132	0.9154	0.9055
Collin Delia	0.9172	396	59	0.9217	0.9153	0.9141
Mike McKenna	0.8904	316	47	0.8924	0.9149	0.8822
David Rittich	0.9128	865	112	0.9179	0.8393	0.9199
Henrik Lundqvist	0.9186	1210	190	0.9058	0.8368	0.9103
Alex Stalock	0.9086	332	61	0.8916	0.8361	0.8957
Pekka Rinne	0.9183	1029	128	0.9145	0.8359	0.9189
James Reimer	0.9137	765	90	0.9007	0.8333	0.9051
Braden Holtby	0.9182	1173	161	0.9079	0.8323	0.9122
Pheonix Copley	0.8984	536	77	0.9030	0.8312	0.9092
Ryan Miller	0.9154	294	47	0.9218	0.8298	0.9334
Brian Elliott	0.9128	384	64	0.9115	0.8281	0.9211
Curtis McElhinney	0.9095	546	63	0.9176	0.8254	0.9190
Anders Nilsson	0.9064	596	80	0.9060	0.8250	0.9112
Jonathan Quick	0.9158	774	94	0.9031	0.8191	0.9117
Scott Darling	0.9084	233	22	0.8841	0.8182	0.8860
Mike Smith	0.9120	676	91	0.8891	0.8132	0.8962
Michael Hutchinson	0.9077	239	32	0.8870	0.8125	0.8970
Philipp Grubauer	0.9166	625	106	0.8896	0.8113	0.9006
Aaron Dell	0.9132	432	57	0.8912	0.8070	0.8988
Antti Niemi	0.9120	506	82	0.8933	0.8049	0.9048
Michal Neuvirth	0.9104	184	30	0.8587	0.8000	0.8686
Jordan Binnington	0.9187	242	30	0.9215	0.8000	0.9306
Cal Petersen	0.9239	355	58	0.9239	0.7931	0.9369
Petr Mrazek	0.9087	662	91	0.8943	0.7912	0.9087
Cam Talbot	0.9155	821	109	0.8916	0.7890	0.9040
Calvin Pickard	0.9090	297	52	0.8754	0.7885	0.8949
Cam Ward	0.9083	755	112	0.8914	0.7768	0.9061

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2018-2019 save percentage

EVSV%: 2018-2019 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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