Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

PlayerCSV%SAEVSASV%EVSV%
Cal Petersen0.92393552830.92390.9505
Ryan Miller0.91542942410.92180.9461
Laurent Brossoit0.91414523750.94030.9440
Jordan Binnington0.91872422090.92150.9426

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

PlayerCSV%SAPKSASV%PKSV%ASV%
Laurent Brossoit0.9141452690.94030.92750.9317
Andrei Vasilevskiy0.918810231740.92570.92530.9149
Mackenzie Blackwood0.9263353490.92630.91840.9161
Anthony Stolarz0.9089280360.89640.91670.8939
Jack Campbell0.9274505710.93270.91550.9232
Devan Dubnyk0.916212212010.91320.91540.9055
Collin Delia0.9172396590.92170.91530.9141
Mike McKenna0.8904316470.89240.91490.8822
David Rittich0.91288651120.91790.83930.9199
Henrik Lundqvist0.918612101900.90580.83680.9103
Alex Stalock0.9086332610.89160.83610.8957
Pekka Rinne0.918310291280.91450.83590.9189
James Reimer0.9137765900.90070.83330.9051
Braden Holtby0.918211731610.90790.83230.9122
Pheonix Copley0.8984536770.90300.83120.9092
Ryan Miller0.9154294470.92180.82980.9334
Brian Elliott0.9128384640.91150.82810.9211
Curtis McElhinney0.9095546630.91760.82540.9190
Anders Nilsson0.9064596800.90600.82500.9112
Jonathan Quick0.9158774940.90310.81910.9117
Scott Darling0.9084233220.88410.81820.8860
Mike Smith0.9120676910.88910.81320.8962
Michael Hutchinson0.9077239320.88700.81250.8970
Philipp Grubauer0.91666251060.88960.81130.9006
Aaron Dell0.9132432570.89120.80700.8988
Antti Niemi0.9120506820.89330.80490.9048
Michal Neuvirth0.9104184300.85870.80000.8686
Jordan Binnington0.9187242300.92150.80000.9306
Cal Petersen0.9239355580.92390.79310.9369
Petr Mrazek0.9087662910.89430.79120.9087
Cam Talbot0.91558211090.89160.78900.9040
Calvin Pickard0.9090297520.87540.78850.8949
Cam Ward0.90837551120.89140.77680.9061

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2018-2019 save percentage

EVSV%: 2018-2019 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill