Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

February 14, 2019 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Cal Petersen	0.9239	355	283	0.9239	0.9505
Jordan Binnington	0.9247	328	285	0.9268	0.9474
Ryan Miller	0.9154	294	241	0.9218	0.9461

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Mackenzie Blackwood	0.9263	353	49	0.9263	0.9184	0.9161
Andrei Vasilevskiy	0.9187	1116	181	0.9247	0.9171	0.9152
Jack Campbell	0.9274	505	71	0.9327	0.9155	0.9232
Mike McKenna	0.8904	316	47	0.8924	0.9149	0.8822
Laurent Brossoit	0.9122	484	70	0.9339	0.9143	0.9272
Alexandar Georgiev	0.9102	560	102	0.9054	0.9118	0.8990
Anders Nilsson	0.9080	724	99	0.9144	0.8384	0.9175
Braden Holtby	0.9180	1235	173	0.9069	0.8382	0.9104
David Rittich	0.9087	923	123	0.9112	0.8374	0.9148
Pekka Rinne	0.9183	1089	135	0.9137	0.8370	0.9177
Alex Stalock	0.9086	332	61	0.8916	0.8361	0.8957
James Reimer	0.9135	777	90	0.8983	0.8333	0.9028
Jimmy Howard	0.9146	1176	186	0.9141	0.8333	0.9205
Jonathan Quick	0.9155	870	112	0.8989	0.8304	0.9074
Ryan Miller	0.9154	294	47	0.9218	0.8298	0.9334
Pheonix Copley	0.8986	606	82	0.9026	0.8293	0.9076
Brian Elliott	0.9128	384	64	0.9115	0.8281	0.9211
Scott Darling	0.9084	233	22	0.8841	0.8182	0.8860
Philipp Grubauer	0.9166	636	107	0.8899	0.8131	0.9006
Michael Hutchinson	0.9077	239	32	0.8870	0.8125	0.8970
Mike Smith	0.9120	700	95	0.8886	0.8105	0.8959
Antti Niemi	0.9120	506	82	0.8933	0.8049	0.9048
Cory Schneider	0.9188	257	25	0.8677	0.8000	0.8775
Michal Neuvirth	0.9104	184	30	0.8587	0.8000	0.8686
Aaron Dell	0.9132	455	60	0.8923	0.8000	0.9006
Cam Talbot	0.9154	888	119	0.8930	0.7983	0.9041
Cal Petersen	0.9239	355	58	0.9239	0.7931	0.9369
Petr Mrazek	0.9089	710	96	0.8972	0.7917	0.9107
Calvin Pickard	0.9090	297	52	0.8754	0.7885	0.8949
Cam Ward	0.9084	800	116	0.8950	0.7845	0.9077
Jordan Binnington	0.9247	328	37	0.9268	0.7838	0.9344

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2018-2019 save percentage

EVSV%: 2018-2019 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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