Buy-Low and Sell-High: Skaters
Introduction
Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at skaters performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on shooting percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it is unlikely that a player can maintain a shooting percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers for long amounts of time (which translates to lots of shots).
The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent. The last column (Dev) measures the deviation from career levels. As a fantasy hockey manager (at least one in a league that emphasizes goal scoring), you could interpret this data as a player's trade value. Today's article will include the requirements that a player has taken at least 40 shots on goal and has a deviation of at least 50% from his career numbers.
| Player | G | A | S | S/GP | 3YS/GP | SH% | CSH% | DEV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Richardson | 16 | 5 | 98 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 16.3 | 8.7 | 89 |
| Tom Wilson | 18 | 15 | 101 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 17.8 | 9.5 | 88 |
| Morgan Rielly | 16 | 47 | 172 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 85 |
| Casey Cizikas | 18 | 11 | 89 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 20.2 | 11.2 | 81 |
| Joe Pavelski | 36 | 25 | 169 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 21.3 | 12.5 | 71 |
| Tyler Ennis | 12 | 5 | 69 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 17.4 | 10.2 | 71 |
| Michael Frolik | 13 | 10 | 96 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 13.5 | 8.1 | 68 |
| Matt Niskanen | 8 | 14 | 103 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 68 |
| Brian Boyle | 16 | 6 | 103 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 15.5 | 9.3 | 67 |
| Damon Severson | 9 | 24 | 111 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 63 |
| Ron Hainsey | 4 | 15 | 58 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 63 |
| Tomas Hertl | 29 | 29 | 140 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 20.7 | 12.8 | 62 |
| David Perron | 17 | 18 | 85 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 20.0 | 12.4 | 61 |
| Garnet Hathaway | 7 | 3 | 59 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 58 |
| Valtteri Filppula | 13 | 13 | 61 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 21.3 | 13.6 | 57 |
| Jared McCann | 14 | 12 | 108 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 57 |
| Danny DeKeyser | 4 | 10 | 41 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 57 |
| Elias Lindholm | 26 | 46 | 163 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 16.0 | 10.2 | 56 |
| Nikita Zadorov | 7 | 4 | 77 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 55 |
| Viktor Arvidsson | 28 | 10 | 152 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 18.4 | 12.1 | 52 |
| Matt Duchene | 28 | 33 | 142 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 19.7 | 13.0 | 52 |
| Alex Chiasson | 18 | 11 | 94 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 19.1 | 12.7 | 51 |
| TJ Brodie | 8 | 23 | 85 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 50 |
| Carl Hagelin | 3 | 6 | 77 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 8.0 | -51 |
| Noel Acciari | 3 | 5 | 76 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 8.2 | -52 |
| Jake Gardiner | 2 | 27 | 75 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 5.6 | -53 |
| Andrew Cogliano | 4 | 10 | 88 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 10.4 | -56 |
| Alexander Wennberg | 2 | 21 | 55 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 8.3 | -56 |
| David Backes | 5 | 9 | 97 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 11.6 | -56 |
| Michael Del Zotto | 1 | 6 | 40 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 6.0 | -58 |
| Pat Maroon | 4 | 13 | 93 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 10.9 | -61 |
| Nick Leddy | 2 | 19 | 88 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 6.2 | -63 |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 2 | 5 | 60 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 9.4 | -64 |
| James Neal | 5 | 10 | 122 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 11.6 | -65 |
| Ian Cole | 1 | 10 | 66 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4.3 | -65 |
| Drew Stafford | 2 | 6 | 56 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 10.5 | -66 |
| Jaden Schwartz | 6 | 22 | 142 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 12.3 | -66 |
| Ryan Murray | 1 | 28 | 71 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4.1 | -66 |
| Olli Maatta | 1 | 12 | 65 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 4.7 | -67 |
| Jack Johnson | 1 | 12 | 67 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5.0 | -70 |
| Kevin Shattenkirk | 2 | 20 | 116 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 6.0 | -71 |
| Deryk Engelland | 1 | 7 | 82 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4.3 | -72 |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic | 1 | 13 | 74 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 4.8 | -72 |
| Erik Karlsson | 3 | 42 | 167 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 6.4 | -72 |
| Dion Phaneuf | 1 | 4 | 67 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 5.5 | -73 |
| Kevin Connauton | 1 | 7 | 69 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 6.0 | -76 |
| Riley Nash | 1 | 7 | 63 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 9.1 | -83 |
| Tobias Rieder | 0 | 11 | 74 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 7.6 | -100 |
Legend
G: Goals
A: Assists
S: Shots on goal
S/GP: Shots on goal per game
3YS/GP: Three-year average shots on goal per game
SH%: 2018-2019 shooting percentage
CSH%: Career shooting percentage
DEV: Deviation from career shooting percentage
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