Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Kevin Lankinen 0.9351 231 187 0.9351 0.9465
Calvin Petersen 0.9242 128 111 0.9297 0.9459
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9191 204 171 0.9265 0.9415
Juuse Saros 0.9177 173 136 0.9075 0.9412

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Jonathan Quick 0.9132 156 28 0.8846 0.9643 0.8624
Devan Dubnyk 0.9145 123 27 0.9024 0.9630 0.8800
Philipp Grubauer 0.9207 229 47 0.9345 0.9574 0.9154
Cam Talbot 0.9154 162 22 0.9198 0.9545 0.9044
John Gibson 0.9184 275 43 0.9236 0.9302 0.9129
Brian Elliott 0.9118 117 25 0.9316 0.9200 0.9226
Darcy Kuemper 0.9175 221 46 0.9050 0.9130 0.8957
Laurent Brossoit 0.9068 110 21 0.9182 0.9048 0.9122
Vitek Vanecek 0.9127 275 40 0.9127 0.8250 0.9211
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9191 204 28 0.9265 0.8214 0.9298
Matt Murray 0.9121 186 39 0.8495 0.8205 0.8640
Frederik Andersen 0.9160 223 39 0.8924 0.7949 0.9106
Carter Hart 0.9138 220 34 0.9000 0.7941 0.9095
Juuse Saros 0.9177 173 33 0.9075 0.7879 0.9295
Thomas Greiss 0.9142 185 38 0.8973 0.7632 0.9210
Marcus Hogberg 0.8939 122 21 0.8443 0.7619 0.8636
Pekka Rinne 0.9170 84 22 0.8690 0.7273 0.9076
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2020-2021 save percentage
EVSV%
2020-2021 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2020-2021 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2020-2021 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill