Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

January 5, 2022 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Anthony Stolarz	0.9179	293	229	0.9317	0.9520
Charlie Lindgren	0.9134	118	103	0.9576	0.9515
Jack Campbell	0.9224	704	608	0.9389	0.9441
Jaroslav Halak	0.9161	224	194	0.9152	0.9433
Dan Vladar	0.9101	207	168	0.9275	0.9405

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Igor Shesterkin	0.9255	655	108	0.9359	0.9444	0.9226
John Gibson	0.9166	866	123	0.9169	0.9431	0.9055
Tristan Jarry	0.9161	694	69	0.9323	0.9420	0.9222
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	0.9192	247	29	0.9271	0.9310	0.9176
Stuart Skinner	0.9110	299	42	0.9164	0.9286	0.9097
James Reimer	0.9132	583	69	0.9160	0.9275	0.9094
Sergei Bobrovsky	0.9166	645	104	0.9209	0.9135	0.9155
Ilya Sorokin	0.9217	637	79	0.9246	0.9114	0.9216
Anton Forsberg	0.9035	391	77	0.9079	0.9091	0.9005
Kaapo Kahkonen	0.9044	203	33	0.9064	0.9091	0.8986
Mackenzie Blackwood	0.9085	580	53	0.8948	0.9057	0.8944
Juuse Saros	0.9213	805	145	0.9267	0.9034	0.9229
Jeremy Swayman	0.9295	410	51	0.9195	0.9020	0.9158
Antti Raanta	0.9191	218	30	0.9083	0.9000	0.9099
Sam Montembeault	0.8923	346	71	0.8931	0.8310	0.9066
Scott Wedgewood	0.8995	510	76	0.8941	0.8289	0.8993
Kevin Lankinen	0.9041	319	58	0.8840	0.8276	0.8960
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9035	320	51	0.8813	0.8235	0.8874
Chris Driedger	0.9223	232	39	0.8922	0.8205	0.9027
Anton Khudobin	0.9162	181	39	0.8729	0.8205	0.8846
Cal Petersen	0.9122	319	50	0.8934	0.8200	0.9056
Laurent Brossoit	0.9071	330	50	0.9000	0.8200	0.9109
Jonathan Bernier	0.9124	264	44	0.9015	0.8182	0.9115
Connor Hellebuyck	0.9168	819	120	0.9170	0.8167	0.9243
Jake Oettinger	0.9142	257	32	0.9222	0.8125	0.9247
Thomas Greiss	0.9134	409	50	0.8949	0.8000	0.9051
Jaroslav Halak	0.9161	224	27	0.9152	0.7037	0.9312

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2021-2022 save percentage

EVSV%: 2021-2022 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2021-2022 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2021-2022 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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