Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

January 19, 2022 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Charlie Lindgren	0.9134	118	103	0.9576	0.9515
Jaroslav Halak	0.9161	224	194	0.9152	0.9433

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Igor Shesterkin	0.9268	720	111	0.9389	0.9459	0.9255
John Gibson	0.9166	866	123	0.9169	0.9431	0.9055
Ville Husso	0.9098	327	46	0.9327	0.9348	0.9205
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	0.9131	277	30	0.9170	0.9333	0.9077
James Reimer	0.9133	624	73	0.9183	0.9315	0.9110
Tristan Jarry	0.9157	856	83	0.9276	0.9277	0.9189
Anton Forsberg	0.9040	422	81	0.9100	0.9136	0.9019
Ilya Sorokin	0.9230	696	87	0.9267	0.9080	0.9233
Frederik Andersen	0.9161	715	95	0.9301	0.9053	0.9226
Sergei Bobrovsky	0.9166	812	126	0.9212	0.9048	0.9165
Mackenzie Blackwood	0.9088	646	63	0.8978	0.9048	0.8965
Antti Raanta	0.9191	218	30	0.9083	0.9000	0.9099
Chris Driedger	0.9221	280	47	0.8964	0.8298	0.9048
Scott Wedgewood	0.8995	510	76	0.8941	0.8289	0.8993
Jonathan Quick	0.9130	703	105	0.9147	0.8286	0.9226
Kevin Lankinen	0.9041	319	58	0.8840	0.8276	0.8960
Cal Petersen	0.9124	405	62	0.8988	0.8226	0.9111
Laurent Brossoit	0.9071	330	50	0.9000	0.8200	0.9109
Thatcher Demko	0.9125	997	160	0.9168	0.8188	0.9257
Jonathan Bernier	0.9124	264	44	0.9015	0.8182	0.9115
Connor Hellebuyck	0.9166	925	135	0.9146	0.8148	0.9222
Anton Khudobin	0.9161	231	46	0.8788	0.8043	0.8926
Jake Oettinger	0.9092	347	39	0.9049	0.7949	0.9117
Thomas Greiss	0.9133	436	52	0.8945	0.7885	0.9054
David Rittich	0.9060	170	27	0.8824	0.7778	0.8955
Aaron Dell	0.9048	260	31	0.8923	0.7742	0.9042
Jaroslav Halak	0.9161	224	27	0.9152	0.7037	0.9312

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2021-2022 save percentage

EVSV%: 2021-2022 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2021-2022 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2021-2022 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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