Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

November 1, 2023 Left Wing Lock Staff 1 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Joseph Woll	0.9294	154	122	0.9416	0.9508
Karel Vejmelka	0.9000	162	122	0.9259	0.9426

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Linus Ullmark	0.9196	148	23	0.9392	1.0000	0.9156
Jake Oettinger	0.9168	151	25	0.9404	1.0000	0.9171
Petr Mrazek	0.9074	193	26	0.9171	0.9615	0.9116
Jeremy Swayman	0.9217	117	26	0.9573	0.9615	0.9384
Alexandar Georgiev	0.9118	224	44	0.9152	0.9545	0.8971
Jacob Markstrom	0.9092	202	41	0.9010	0.9512	0.8900
Adin Hill	0.9106	169	28	0.9231	0.9286	0.9177
Elvis Merzlikins	0.9057	176	28	0.8977	0.9286	0.8852
Jack Campbell	0.9094	123	24	0.8780	0.9167	0.8777
Thatcher Demko	0.9111	169	36	0.9349	0.9167	0.9269
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	0.8982	82	23	0.9146	0.9130	0.9204
Jonas Johansson	0.8957	282	34	0.9220	0.9118	0.9138
Vitek Vanecek	0.9083	171	35	0.8947	0.8286	0.9028
Ilya Sorokin	0.9230	201	34	0.9104	0.8235	0.9173
John Gibson	0.9122	123	34	0.9024	0.8235	0.9214
Juuse Saros	0.9192	212	38	0.9151	0.8158	0.9242
Carter Hart	0.9061	202	21	0.9208	0.8095	0.9204
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9039	175	26	0.9029	0.8077	0.9155
Casey DeSmith	0.9119	105	25	0.9048	0.8000	0.9344
Filip Gustavsson	0.9170	191	30	0.8848	0.8000	0.8940
Ilya Samsonov	0.9059	107	21	0.8411	0.7619	0.8638
Stuart Skinner	0.9096	117	28	0.8632	0.7500	0.9022

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2023-2024 save percentage

EVSV%: 2023-2024 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2023-2024 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2023-2024 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

Comments (1)

justinscid
November 1, 2023 6:04 pm

If Markstrom is being propped up by luck at his current performance that's rough lol

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