Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

November 8, 2023 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Thatcher Demko	0.9122	270	204	0.9481	0.9559
Semyon Varlamov	0.9162	139	114	0.9496	0.9474
Jeremy Swayman	0.9223	189	146	0.9524	0.9452
Spencer Martin	0.8904	152	124	0.9276	0.9435
Joseph Woll	0.9261	213	169	0.9296	0.9408
Adin Hill	0.9118	210	167	0.9381	0.9401

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
James Reimer	0.9109	108	24	0.9444	1.0000	0.9180
Jeremy Swayman	0.9223	189	34	0.9524	0.9706	0.9327
Jake Oettinger	0.9170	255	57	0.9333	0.9649	0.9134
Jacob Markstrom	0.9091	250	44	0.8960	0.9545	0.8873
Adin Hill	0.9118	210	37	0.9381	0.9459	0.9286
Elvis Merzlikins	0.9055	242	35	0.8967	0.9429	0.8828
Petr Mrazek	0.9076	233	31	0.9227	0.9355	0.9191
Devon Levi	0.8973	148	30	0.8851	0.9333	0.8793
Linus Ullmark	0.9194	188	30	0.9255	0.9333	0.9121
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	0.8975	168	37	0.8988	0.9189	0.8934
Alexandar Georgiev	0.9110	281	59	0.8968	0.9153	0.8932
Thatcher Demko	0.9122	270	58	0.9481	0.9138	0.9412
Jonas Johansson	0.8927	344	46	0.9070	0.9130	0.8999
Joseph Woll	0.9261	213	40	0.9296	0.9000	0.9292
Connor Hellebuyck	0.9158	277	53	0.8917	0.8302	0.9025
Ilya Sorokin	0.9229	247	40	0.9109	0.8250	0.9172
Jordan Binnington	0.9068	260	22	0.9192	0.8182	0.9216
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9038	234	33	0.9017	0.8182	0.9109
Karel Vejmelka	0.8991	218	44	0.9037	0.8182	0.9135
Ville Husso	0.9031	291	54	0.8900	0.8148	0.9036
Juuse Saros	0.9191	281	43	0.9110	0.8140	0.9179
Carter Hart	0.9059	207	21	0.9130	0.8095	0.9129
Kaapo Kahkonen	0.8977	137	21	0.8759	0.8095	0.8804
Casey DeSmith	0.9119	105	25	0.9048	0.8000	0.9344
Filip Gustavsson	0.9150	233	39	0.8712	0.7692	0.8873
Stuart Skinner	0.9076	180	40	0.8556	0.7250	0.8943
Ilya Samsonov	0.9056	159	25	0.8553	0.7200	0.8797
Joey Daccord	0.8904	197	23	0.9086	0.6957	0.9254

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2023-2024 save percentage

EVSV%: 2023-2024 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2023-2024 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2023-2024 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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