Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

November 22, 2023 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Semyon Varlamov	0.9161	198	162	0.9343	0.9444
Charlie Lindgren	0.9094	167	139	0.9401	0.9424

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Jonathan Quick	0.9112	152	21	0.9276	1.0000	0.9089
Pheonix Copley	0.8985	103	27	0.8447	0.9630	0.8415
Eric Comrie	0.8968	88	23	0.8977	0.9565	0.8718
Jeremy Swayman	0.9214	285	51	0.9333	0.9412	0.9186
Elvis Merzlikins	0.9053	380	51	0.8974	0.9412	0.8855
Jake Oettinger	0.9162	373	81	0.9196	0.9383	0.9057
Jacob Markstrom	0.9092	340	58	0.9029	0.9310	0.8969
Cam Talbot	0.9140	373	71	0.9303	0.9296	0.9186
Adin Hill	0.9117	321	56	0.9283	0.9286	0.9205
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	0.8992	246	50	0.9106	0.9200	0.9043
Charlie Lindgren	0.9094	167	25	0.9401	0.9200	0.9305
Linus Ullmark	0.9195	251	37	0.9283	0.9189	0.9211
James Reimer	0.9107	169	34	0.9172	0.9118	0.9099
Connor Ingram	0.9061	269	53	0.9108	0.9057	0.9077
Joseph Woll	0.9169	308	51	0.9091	0.9020	0.9062
Alexandar Georgiev	0.9102	403	80	0.8883	0.9000	0.8880
Carter Hart	0.9062	270	29	0.9185	0.8276	0.9172
Cayden Primeau	0.8736	104	29	0.8846	0.8276	0.9099
Filip Gustavsson	0.9153	289	52	0.8824	0.8269	0.8889
Ville Husso	0.9025	313	57	0.8850	0.8246	0.8963
Igor Shesterkin	0.9230	273	45	0.9084	0.8222	0.9178
Connor Hellebuyck	0.9158	368	67	0.8967	0.8209	0.9106
Akira Schmid	0.8984	157	22	0.8854	0.8182	0.8918
Casey DeSmith	0.9121	205	32	0.9122	0.8125	0.9235
Anton Forsberg	0.9064	121	21	0.8595	0.8095	0.8706
Juuse Saros	0.9182	390	62	0.8923	0.8065	0.9032
Samuel Ersson	0.8871	160	23	0.8625	0.7826	0.8797
Ilya Samsonov	0.9061	221	41	0.8778	0.7805	0.8948
Marc-Andre Fleury	0.9123	248	49	0.8750	0.7755	0.9054
Joey Daccord	0.8897	292	40	0.9007	0.7750	0.9115
Ilya Sorokin	0.9220	394	61	0.9061	0.7705	0.9201
Arvid Soderblom	0.8873	215	30	0.8837	0.7667	0.8966
Stuart Skinner	0.9070	307	57	0.8730	0.7544	0.8976

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2023-2024 save percentage

EVSV%: 2023-2024 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2023-2024 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2023-2024 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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