Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

November 29, 2023 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Anthony Stolarz	0.9123	141	119	0.9291	0.9496
Semyon Varlamov	0.9161	229	187	0.9301	0.9412
Alex Nedeljkovic	0.9082	142	119	0.9366	0.9412
Charlie Lindgren	0.9084	202	166	0.9257	0.9398

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Pheonix Copley	0.8995	121	34	0.8678	0.9706	0.8582
Jonathan Quick	0.9113	215	30	0.9302	0.9667	0.9147
Eric Comrie	0.8953	105	23	0.8762	0.9565	0.8536
Elvis Merzlikins	0.9061	497	68	0.9074	0.9559	0.8935
Jake Oettinger	0.9159	452	100	0.9159	0.9400	0.9017
Adin Hill	0.9127	387	63	0.9328	0.9365	0.9227
Connor Ingram	0.9096	354	70	0.9237	0.9286	0.9155
Jacob Markstrom	0.9091	413	77	0.9007	0.9221	0.8976
Cam Talbot	0.9141	404	74	0.9307	0.9189	0.9210
Jeremy Swayman	0.9205	331	61	0.9245	0.9180	0.9141
Tristan Jarry	0.9137	439	60	0.9157	0.9167	0.9105
Joseph Woll	0.9199	382	59	0.9162	0.9153	0.9101
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	0.9008	305	59	0.9180	0.9153	0.9127
James Reimer	0.9107	169	34	0.9172	0.9118	0.9099
Alexandar Georgiev	0.9106	492	97	0.8984	0.9072	0.8947
Linus Ullmark	0.9191	339	51	0.9174	0.9020	0.9153
Ville Husso	0.9027	340	65	0.8882	0.8308	0.8987
Connor Hellebuyck	0.9160	455	75	0.9077	0.8267	0.9180
Juuse Saros	0.9183	481	72	0.9002	0.8194	0.9094
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9038	367	53	0.9019	0.8113	0.9104
Stuart Skinner	0.9062	394	70	0.8756	0.8000	0.8906
Vitek Vanecek	0.9060	381	64	0.8793	0.7969	0.8927
Ilya Sorokin	0.9224	503	73	0.9125	0.7945	0.9213
Casey DeSmith	0.9116	227	34	0.9031	0.7941	0.9164
Anton Forsberg	0.9057	147	24	0.8503	0.7917	0.8643
Joey Daccord	0.8880	333	43	0.8949	0.7907	0.9052
Ilya Samsonov	0.9059	255	43	0.8784	0.7907	0.8920
Samuel Ersson	0.8926	185	23	0.8811	0.7826	0.8951
Arvid Soderblom	0.8864	288	36	0.8819	0.7778	0.8921
Marc-Andre Fleury	0.9123	248	49	0.8750	0.7755	0.9054
Antti Raanta	0.9160	205	25	0.8537	0.6000	0.8929

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2023-2024 save percentage

EVSV%: 2023-2024 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2023-2024 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2023-2024 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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