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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

January 3, 2024   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Martin Jones 0.9057 244 198 0.9262 0.9444
Anthony Stolarz 0.9118 231 198 0.9177 0.9394

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Elvis Merzlikins 0.9061 738 109 0.9065 0.9358 0.8954
Jacob Markstrom 0.9093 623 108 0.9069 0.9352 0.8982
Jake Oettinger 0.9139 598 125 0.9013 0.9280 0.8895
Adin Hill 0.9129 406 67 0.9335 0.9254 0.9252
Cam Talbot 0.9141 689 120 0.9245 0.9250 0.9153
Jonathan Quick 0.9112 359 51 0.9164 0.9216 0.9070
Pheonix Copley 0.8988 177 48 0.8701 0.9167 0.8709
Joseph Woll 0.9195 490 72 0.9163 0.9167 0.9096
Jeremy Swayman 0.9214 540 106 0.9278 0.9151 0.9191
Calvin Pickard 0.9034 167 22 0.9042 0.9091 0.8977
Pyotr Kochetkov 0.9064 509 64 0.9037 0.9063 0.9028
Linus Ullmark 0.9189 609 92 0.9163 0.9022 0.9140
Connor Ingram 0.9103 621 112 0.9195 0.9018 0.9183
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9148 760 122 0.9118 0.9016 0.9089
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 0.8961 474 81 0.8924 0.9012 0.8889
Stuart Skinner 0.9080 669 117 0.8954 0.8291 0.9047
Vitek Vanecek 0.9050 605 93 0.8826 0.8280 0.8913
Devon Levi 0.8934 472 81 0.8877 0.8272 0.8994
Kaapo Kahkonen 0.8989 580 80 0.9000 0.8250 0.9066
Spencer Martin 0.8858 379 55 0.8865 0.8182 0.8974
Sam Montembeault 0.8968 516 82 0.9031 0.8171 0.9165
Alex Lyon 0.9056 277 38 0.9170 0.8158 0.9232
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9124 452 88 0.8960 0.8068 0.9150
Laurent Brossoit 0.9079 251 31 0.9124 0.8065 0.9173
Ilya Sorokin 0.9212 881 123 0.9103 0.8049 0.9169
Ilya Samsonov 0.9034 377 54 0.8621 0.7778 0.8748
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9025 665 107 0.8887 0.7757 0.9051
Joel Hofer 0.9066 360 39 0.9111 0.7692 0.9178
Arvid Soderblom 0.8817 483 64 0.8737 0.7656 0.8875
Anthony Stolarz 0.9118 231 25 0.9177 0.7600 0.9281
Kevin Lankinen 0.9039 269 37 0.8996 0.7568 0.9129
Antti Raanta 0.9149 330 40 0.8545 0.7000 0.8795

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2023-2024 save percentage

EVSV%: 2023-2024 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2023-2024 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2023-2024 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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