Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

January 3, 2024 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Martin Jones	0.9057	244	198	0.9262	0.9444
Anthony Stolarz	0.9118	231	198	0.9177	0.9394

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Elvis Merzlikins	0.9061	738	109	0.9065	0.9358	0.8954
Jacob Markstrom	0.9093	623	108	0.9069	0.9352	0.8982
Jake Oettinger	0.9139	598	125	0.9013	0.9280	0.8895
Adin Hill	0.9129	406	67	0.9335	0.9254	0.9252
Cam Talbot	0.9141	689	120	0.9245	0.9250	0.9153
Jonathan Quick	0.9112	359	51	0.9164	0.9216	0.9070
Pheonix Copley	0.8988	177	48	0.8701	0.9167	0.8709
Joseph Woll	0.9195	490	72	0.9163	0.9167	0.9096
Jeremy Swayman	0.9214	540	106	0.9278	0.9151	0.9191
Calvin Pickard	0.9034	167	22	0.9042	0.9091	0.8977
Pyotr Kochetkov	0.9064	509	64	0.9037	0.9063	0.9028
Linus Ullmark	0.9189	609	92	0.9163	0.9022	0.9140
Connor Ingram	0.9103	621	112	0.9195	0.9018	0.9183
Sergei Bobrovsky	0.9148	760	122	0.9118	0.9016	0.9089
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	0.8961	474	81	0.8924	0.9012	0.8889
Stuart Skinner	0.9080	669	117	0.8954	0.8291	0.9047
Vitek Vanecek	0.9050	605	93	0.8826	0.8280	0.8913
Devon Levi	0.8934	472	81	0.8877	0.8272	0.8994
Kaapo Kahkonen	0.8989	580	80	0.9000	0.8250	0.9066
Spencer Martin	0.8858	379	55	0.8865	0.8182	0.8974
Sam Montembeault	0.8968	516	82	0.9031	0.8171	0.9165
Alex Lyon	0.9056	277	38	0.9170	0.8158	0.9232
Marc-Andre Fleury	0.9124	452	88	0.8960	0.8068	0.9150
Laurent Brossoit	0.9079	251	31	0.9124	0.8065	0.9173
Ilya Sorokin	0.9212	881	123	0.9103	0.8049	0.9169
Ilya Samsonov	0.9034	377	54	0.8621	0.7778	0.8748
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9025	665	107	0.8887	0.7757	0.9051
Joel Hofer	0.9066	360	39	0.9111	0.7692	0.9178
Arvid Soderblom	0.8817	483	64	0.8737	0.7656	0.8875
Anthony Stolarz	0.9118	231	25	0.9177	0.7600	0.9281
Kevin Lankinen	0.9039	269	37	0.8996	0.7568	0.9129
Antti Raanta	0.9149	330	40	0.8545	0.7000	0.8795

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2023-2024 save percentage

EVSV%: 2023-2024 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2023-2024 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2023-2024 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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