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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

January 17, 2024   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Martin Jones 0.9059 412 333 0.9223 0.9399
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9168 933 749 0.9250 0.9399

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
David Rittich 0.9051 103 24 0.9320 0.9583 0.9142
Elvis Merzlikins 0.9060 768 115 0.9063 0.9304 0.8959
Jonathan Quick 0.9111 411 57 0.9124 0.9298 0.9022
Jacob Markstrom 0.9095 764 122 0.9123 0.9262 0.9059
Adin Hill 0.9129 406 67 0.9335 0.9254 0.9252
Cam Talbot 0.9136 848 141 0.9151 0.9220 0.9074
Jake Oettinger 0.9143 687 136 0.9054 0.9191 0.8960
Pheonix Copley 0.8988 177 48 0.8701 0.9167 0.8709
Joseph Woll 0.9195 490 72 0.9163 0.9167 0.9096
Calvin Pickard 0.9033 184 23 0.9022 0.9130 0.8956
Charlie Lindgren 0.9114 504 79 0.9286 0.9114 0.9223
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 0.8997 594 93 0.9057 0.9032 0.9012
Daniil Tarasov 0.8927 265 41 0.8755 0.8293 0.8828
Jake Allen 0.9084 504 82 0.9008 0.8293 0.9078
Anthony Stolarz 0.9114 287 35 0.9129 0.8286 0.9204
Laurent Brossoit 0.9089 310 34 0.9226 0.8235 0.9232
Spencer Martin 0.8858 379 55 0.8865 0.8182 0.8974
Alex Lyon 0.9082 434 55 0.9217 0.8182 0.9254
Ilya Sorokin 0.9206 1108 163 0.9097 0.8160 0.9158
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9123 601 111 0.8968 0.8108 0.9156
Kaapo Kahkonen 0.8987 634 84 0.8991 0.8095 0.9072
Joel Hofer 0.9061 431 51 0.9095 0.8039 0.9140
Arvid Soderblom 0.8823 514 73 0.8755 0.7945 0.8865
Jiri Patera 0.9091 161 34 0.9006 0.7941 0.9185
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9018 769 117 0.8843 0.7863 0.8978
Ilya Samsonov 0.9032 400 56 0.8625 0.7857 0.8727
Kevin Lankinen 0.9037 334 47 0.8982 0.7660 0.9109
Antti Raanta 0.9150 419 45 0.8687 0.7333 0.8858

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2023-2024 save percentage

EVSV%: 2023-2024 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2023-2024 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2023-2024 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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