Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

January 17, 2024 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Martin Jones	0.9059	412	333	0.9223	0.9399
Connor Hellebuyck	0.9168	933	749	0.9250	0.9399

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
David Rittich	0.9051	103	24	0.9320	0.9583	0.9142
Elvis Merzlikins	0.9060	768	115	0.9063	0.9304	0.8959
Jonathan Quick	0.9111	411	57	0.9124	0.9298	0.9022
Jacob Markstrom	0.9095	764	122	0.9123	0.9262	0.9059
Adin Hill	0.9129	406	67	0.9335	0.9254	0.9252
Cam Talbot	0.9136	848	141	0.9151	0.9220	0.9074
Jake Oettinger	0.9143	687	136	0.9054	0.9191	0.8960
Pheonix Copley	0.8988	177	48	0.8701	0.9167	0.8709
Joseph Woll	0.9195	490	72	0.9163	0.9167	0.9096
Calvin Pickard	0.9033	184	23	0.9022	0.9130	0.8956
Charlie Lindgren	0.9114	504	79	0.9286	0.9114	0.9223
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	0.8997	594	93	0.9057	0.9032	0.9012
Daniil Tarasov	0.8927	265	41	0.8755	0.8293	0.8828
Jake Allen	0.9084	504	82	0.9008	0.8293	0.9078
Anthony Stolarz	0.9114	287	35	0.9129	0.8286	0.9204
Laurent Brossoit	0.9089	310	34	0.9226	0.8235	0.9232
Spencer Martin	0.8858	379	55	0.8865	0.8182	0.8974
Alex Lyon	0.9082	434	55	0.9217	0.8182	0.9254
Ilya Sorokin	0.9206	1108	163	0.9097	0.8160	0.9158
Marc-Andre Fleury	0.9123	601	111	0.8968	0.8108	0.9156
Kaapo Kahkonen	0.8987	634	84	0.8991	0.8095	0.9072
Joel Hofer	0.9061	431	51	0.9095	0.8039	0.9140
Arvid Soderblom	0.8823	514	73	0.8755	0.7945	0.8865
Jiri Patera	0.9091	161	34	0.9006	0.7941	0.9185
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9018	769	117	0.8843	0.7863	0.8978
Ilya Samsonov	0.9032	400	56	0.8625	0.7857	0.8727
Kevin Lankinen	0.9037	334	47	0.8982	0.7660	0.9109
Antti Raanta	0.9150	419	45	0.8687	0.7333	0.8858

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2023-2024 save percentage

EVSV%: 2023-2024 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2023-2024 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2023-2024 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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