Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

January 24, 2024 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Connor Hellebuyck	0.9169	988	791	0.9251	0.9393

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
David Rittich	0.9055	186	40	0.9301	0.9500	0.9146
Adin Hill	0.9134	448	74	0.9353	0.9324	0.9277
Jonathan Quick	0.9111	437	57	0.9130	0.9298	0.9031
Elvis Merzlikins	0.9055	825	125	0.9030	0.9280	0.8931
Jacob Markstrom	0.9094	790	124	0.9101	0.9274	0.9046
Cam Talbot	0.9136	848	141	0.9151	0.9220	0.9074
Joseph Woll	0.9195	490	72	0.9163	0.9167	0.9096
Pheonix Copley	0.8988	177	48	0.8701	0.9167	0.8709
Calvin Pickard	0.9033	185	23	0.9027	0.9130	0.8961
Charlie Lindgren	0.9111	553	91	0.9259	0.9121	0.9211
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	0.9006	663	110	0.9080	0.9091	0.9033
Jake Oettinger	0.9138	764	156	0.9031	0.9038	0.8970
Thatcher Demko	0.9122	1032	184	0.9215	0.9022	0.9162
Daniil Tarasov	0.8927	265	41	0.8755	0.8293	0.8828
Alex Lyon	0.9084	557	70	0.9192	0.8286	0.9231
Laurent Brossoit	0.9089	310	34	0.9226	0.8235	0.9232
Ilya Sorokin	0.9203	1202	175	0.9093	0.8229	0.9142
Spencer Martin	0.8858	379	55	0.8865	0.8182	0.8974
Marc-Andre Fleury	0.9123	612	114	0.8971	0.8158	0.9149
Arvid Soderblom	0.8829	545	86	0.8771	0.8140	0.8866
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9022	846	130	0.8889	0.8077	0.8989
Joel Hofer	0.9061	431	51	0.9095	0.8039	0.9140
Kaapo Kahkonen	0.8992	681	86	0.9016	0.8023	0.9098
Jiri Patera	0.9091	161	34	0.9006	0.7941	0.9185
Ilya Samsonov	0.9034	417	56	0.8657	0.7857	0.8755
Kevin Lankinen	0.9037	334	47	0.8982	0.7660	0.9109
Antti Raanta	0.9146	448	49	0.8661	0.7347	0.8834

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2023-2024 save percentage

EVSV%: 2023-2024 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2023-2024 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2023-2024 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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