Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

February 7, 2024 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Adin Hill	0.9143	517	419	0.9381	0.9427
Connor Hellebuyck	0.9168	1044	837	0.9234	0.9403

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Adin Hill	0.9143	517	80	0.9381	0.9375	0.9307
David Rittich	0.9056	279	63	0.9247	0.9365	0.9115
Cam Talbot	0.9134	897	146	0.9108	0.9247	0.9026
Jacob Markstrom	0.9096	875	138	0.9131	0.9203	0.9093
Jonathan Quick	0.9112	501	61	0.9182	0.9180	0.9091
Pheonix Copley	0.8988	177	48	0.8701	0.9167	0.8709
Joseph Woll	0.9195	490	72	0.9163	0.9167	0.9096
Calvin Pickard	0.9040	212	23	0.9151	0.9130	0.9078
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	0.9013	719	123	0.9096	0.9106	0.9045
Elvis Merzlikins	0.9056	880	132	0.9034	0.9091	0.8961
Jake Oettinger	0.9139	861	176	0.9048	0.9034	0.8985
Spencer Martin	0.8865	407	59	0.8894	0.8305	0.8980
Ilya Samsonov	0.9043	504	68	0.8790	0.8235	0.8835
Casey DeSmith	0.9118	418	62	0.9091	0.8226	0.9176
Kaapo Kahkonen	0.8992	750	95	0.9013	0.8211	0.9069
Ilya Sorokin	0.9205	1238	178	0.9103	0.8202	0.9154
Arvid Soderblom	0.8805	573	88	0.8726	0.8182	0.8831
Daniil Tarasov	0.8936	320	49	0.8813	0.8163	0.8898
Marc-Andre Fleury	0.9123	612	114	0.8971	0.8158	0.9149
Joel Hofer	0.9062	496	58	0.9093	0.8103	0.9143
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9020	928	135	0.8890	0.8074	0.8980
Jiri Patera	0.9091	161	34	0.9006	0.7941	0.9185
Antti Raanta	0.9146	484	51	0.8698	0.7451	0.8852
Kevin Lankinen	0.9033	354	50	0.8955	0.7400	0.9119

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2023-2024 save percentage

EVSV%: 2023-2024 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2023-2024 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2023-2024 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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