Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

February 21, 2024 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Connor Hellebuyck	0.9169	1167	938	0.9246	0.9392

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Adin Hill	0.9134	634	92	0.9290	0.9348	0.9228
Cam Talbot	0.9135	968	164	0.9132	0.9268	0.9043
Pheonix Copley	0.8988	177	48	0.8701	0.9167	0.8709
David Rittich	0.9056	381	84	0.9186	0.9167	0.9097
Joseph Woll	0.9195	490	72	0.9163	0.9167	0.9096
Jonathan Quick	0.9112	555	69	0.9171	0.9130	0.9088
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	0.9019	824	141	0.9102	0.9078	0.9054
James Reimer	0.9104	417	65	0.9041	0.9077	0.8968
Jake Oettinger	0.9135	991	186	0.9041	0.9032	0.8986
Jacob Markstrom	0.9097	1024	154	0.9131	0.9026	0.9122
Kaapo Kahkonen	0.9000	830	100	0.9048	0.8300	0.9085
Jake Allen	0.9079	634	105	0.8943	0.8286	0.9030
Marc-Andre Fleury	0.9123	711	137	0.8973	0.8248	0.9130
Ilya Samsonov	0.9041	603	85	0.8823	0.8235	0.8886
Joel Hofer	0.9085	558	68	0.9122	0.8235	0.9191
Dustin Wolf	0.8873	180	28	0.8778	0.8214	0.8822
Ilya Sorokin	0.9200	1366	201	0.9092	0.8209	0.9152
Arvid Soderblom	0.8806	599	88	0.8731	0.8182	0.8832
Spencer Martin	0.8874	454	65	0.8921	0.8154	0.9019
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9016	1039	144	0.8874	0.8056	0.8961
Daniil Tarasov	0.8917	349	55	0.8768	0.8000	0.8903
Casey DeSmith	0.9102	471	78	0.8938	0.7949	0.9083
Jiri Patera	0.9091	161	34	0.9006	0.7941	0.9185
Antti Raanta	0.9148	493	51	0.8722	0.7451	0.8871
Kevin Lankinen	0.9023	403	59	0.8883	0.7288	0.9069

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2023-2024 save percentage

EVSV%: 2023-2024 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2023-2024 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2023-2024 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

Comments (0)

In order to leave a comment, you must be a registered user at our website and logged in.

Older posts Newer posts