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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

March 27, 2024   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Anthony Stolarz 0.9144 564 460 0.9273 0.9435
Laurent Brossoit 0.9105 548 454 0.9270 0.9405

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Justus Annunen 0.9089 285 39 0.9263 0.9487 0.9124
Frederik Andersen 0.9155 305 50 0.9246 0.9400 0.9143
Cam Talbot 0.9138 1283 216 0.9166 0.9213 0.9091
Adin Hill 0.9109 908 126 0.9141 0.9206 0.9096
Pheonix Copley 0.8988 177 48 0.8701 0.9167 0.8709
Jonathan Quick 0.9112 679 89 0.9161 0.9101 0.9081
David Rittich 0.9062 541 104 0.9205 0.9038 0.9162
Jacob Markstrom 0.9093 1246 180 0.9085 0.9000 0.9084
James Reimer 0.9105 625 100 0.9072 0.9000 0.9013
Nico Daws 0.8937 568 76 0.8944 0.8289 0.9007
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9122 943 175 0.8993 0.8286 0.9121
Kaapo Kahkonen 0.8983 1072 137 0.8974 0.8248 0.9029
Ilya Sorokin 0.9185 1688 238 0.9064 0.8235 0.9114
Anton Forsberg 0.9045 662 92 0.8852 0.8152 0.8920
Spencer Martin 0.8886 508 74 0.8957 0.8108 0.9061
Casey DeSmith 0.9101 634 94 0.8975 0.8085 0.9074
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9013 1291 174 0.8885 0.7931 0.8985
Jiri Patera 0.9023 196 38 0.8929 0.7895 0.9091
Kevin Lankinen 0.9043 501 69 0.9042 0.7681 0.9153
Antti Raanta 0.9148 493 51 0.8722 0.7451 0.8871

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2023-2024 save percentage

EVSV%: 2023-2024 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2023-2024 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2023-2024 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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