Evaluating Mid-season Trade Suggestions

Introduction

At the halfway point of the 2023-2024 NHL season (January 15, 2024), we provided managers with guidance on players we would consider trading. Below is a brief review of the trade recommendations using each player's second-half statistics as the basis for our opinions. In the end, the win/loss/draw calls are, of course, subjective. Let us know in the comments if you think we got any of these evaluations wrong.

J.T. Miller - Vancouver Canucks

We provided four options to target as part of a return for Miller. The motivating factor behind the trade was Miller's high shooting percentage (20.7%) on low shot volume (2.1 shots per game). By construction, our trade targets were chosen in such a way that we expected them to outshoot Miller in the second half of the season. Three of our targets (Forsberg, Crosby, and Tkachuk) heavily outshot Miller and were able to match (or exceed) his point production in the second half; these were clear trade wins (with the Forsberg option potentially altering the outcome of your season). Our weakest shooting target (Trocheck) underperformed Miller and resulted in a clear loss for this trade option. As is often the case, mistakes are great teachers; in producing a list of potential trade options based on regression, it is imperative to target players with a strong edge in shot production.

Quinn Hughes - Vancouver Canucks

We provided just a single, one-for-one trade option to move Quinn Hughes in January: Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche. This would have been a difficult move to pull off as multiple regression red flags were flashing for Hughes at the time (SH%, IPP, tEVSH%, and secondary assist rate). Although the two defensemen nearly matched one another in points per game down the stretch, Makar gets the edge here as he doubled Hughes' output in goals and provided managers with a 20% premium in shot production.

Brock Boeser - Vancouver Canucks

The driving factor behind our push to trade Brock Boeser in January was that his point production was inflated by an unsustainable shooting percentage of 23.3% (nearly double his three-year average at the time). We anticipated a sharp pullback in goal production in the second half and provided managers with 10 potential trade targets. With Boeser's goal production dropping by nearly 50% in the second half of the season, many of our trade targets ended up in the Win column. Six of our targets were clear wins and one target (Tavares) finished as a draw. We had three targets that failed; although each of the three players matched Boeser's point production in the second half (and exceeded his shot production), they came up quite short in power play production down the stretch.

Elias Pettersson - Vancouver Canucks

With three of his teammates on the trade exploration list, in addition to boasting the NHL record for tEVSH% (15.7%) by any player in history through 43 games, Elias Pettersson was a natural addition to the trade list. Had you traded Pettersson for any of the three mentioned targets, the exchange would have netted you a 50% increase in point production (on a per-game basis) in the second half of the season. Of all the suggested trades in January, this was the one that resulted in the greatest gains.

Sam Reinhart - Florida Panthers

The 2023-2024 season for Sam Reinhart will be one that lives on in fantasy lore for ages. He finished the season with a 25.4% shooting percentage -- the 10th highest value in NHL history for players with at least 205 shots on goal (2.5 shots per game). Is it possible to win a trade by moving a player who puts one of every four shots into the net? Surprisingly, the answer is yes (but it wasn't easy). Despite Reinhart's high shooting percentage for the season, his point production dropped by 23% in the second half of the season (almost identical to his drop in shooting percentage). To win a trade involving Reinhart, you'd need a player who could beat his point-per-game pace down the stretch. Importantly, Reinhart increased his shot production in the second half of the season from 2.69 shots per game to 3.00 shots per game. This brings us back to an earlier point we made when discussing Trocheck as a failed trade target among the Miller options: it is critical to choose trade targets with shot production that eclipses that of the player you're trading away. While all options above had shot production higher than Reinhart's at the time of the article, some of our choices were too close for comfort (and three of those players ended up in the loss column). In total, we claim four wins, one draw, and five losses among our 10 trade targets. Note: we declared the Guentzel target a loss (despite a strong performance) since injuries limited him to just 26 games in the second half.

Blake Coleman - Calgary Flames

Recall that our advice on Coleman was to simply find a replacement player for him that was capable of generating at least 0.56 points per game. We did not offer a list of players in this case, but instead suggested that you include him as part of a two-for-one trade. Above, we've listed Coleman's performance at the time of the original article and his performance in the second half of the season. He saw a 43% drop in point production in the second half and his per-game average came in just shy of our mid-season projection of 0.56. We'll count this recommendation as a win.

Our Blake Coleman trade suggestion was followed by an article from Yahoo Fantasy Hockey telling you to do the exact opposite. Yahoo listed Coleman as the top trade target acquisition in their January 19, 2024 article labeling him as a hot commodity.

Thatcher Demko - Vancouver Canucks

The Demko trade suggestion from our original January 15 article was based entirely on the supposition that Vancouver's winning percentage was set to decline due to a drop in overall team scoring. Thus, replacing Demko was a move to target more goalie wins in the second half of the season. With that in mind, our trade targets resulted in two wins, one draw, and two losses.