Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

January 22, 2025 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Marcus Hogberg	0.8997	125	108	0.9520	0.9630
Jakub Dobes	0.9407	135	116	0.9407	0.9569
Anthony Stolarz	0.9163	480	379	0.9271	0.9393

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Mackenzie Blackwood	0.9058	945	146	0.9164	0.9384	0.9079
Arvid Soderblom	0.8895	600	82	0.9067	0.9268	0.9000
Darcy Kuemper	0.9143	601	87	0.9201	0.9195	0.9142
Igor Shesterkin	0.9197	986	164	0.9118	0.9146	0.9058
Frederik Andersen	0.9159	126	32	0.9286	0.9063	0.9232
Leevi Meriläinen	0.9078	244	42	0.9139	0.9048	0.9072
Joel Blomqvist	0.9041	292	50	0.9041	0.9000	0.8980
Philipp Grubauer	0.9083	530	65	0.8698	0.8308	0.8751
Eric Comrie	0.8951	324	35	0.9043	0.8286	0.9062
John Gibson	0.9100	563	81	0.9094	0.8272	0.9174
Stuart Skinner	0.9073	844	92	0.8993	0.8261	0.9033
Aleksei Kolosov	0.8703	347	51	0.8703	0.8235	0.8767
Jake Allen	0.9072	369	51	0.8970	0.8235	0.9065
Jordan Binnington	0.9067	922	113	0.8980	0.8230	0.9028
Jonathan Quick	0.9108	437	56	0.8970	0.8214	0.9035
Jeremy Swayman	0.9141	963	143	0.8972	0.8182	0.9055
Marc-Andre Fleury	0.9120	430	43	0.9093	0.8140	0.9133
Anton Forsberg	0.9033	389	63	0.8843	0.8095	0.8953
Thatcher Demko	0.9104	267	31	0.8727	0.8065	0.8802
Elvis Merzlikins	0.9023	837	128	0.8901	0.8047	0.9027
Joel Hofer	0.9091	437	51	0.9062	0.8039	0.9145
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9007	390	44	0.8923	0.7955	0.9030
David Rittich	0.9047	447	58	0.8837	0.7931	0.8964
Scott Wedgewood	0.9054	340	48	0.9000	0.7917	0.9087
Ilya Sorokin	0.9166	896	100	0.9018	0.7900	0.9098
Dan Vladar	0.8921	550	83	0.8891	0.7711	0.9051
Justus Annunen	0.9065	428	63	0.8972	0.7619	0.9133
Calvin Pickard	0.9035	379	42	0.8971	0.7619	0.9061
Ilya Samsonov	0.9030	501	53	0.8982	0.7547	0.9095
Semyon Varlamov	0.9156	262	30	0.8893	0.7333	0.9016
Cam Talbot	0.9129	696	86	0.9009	0.7209	0.9202
Ivan Fedotov	0.8695	330	28	0.8788	0.7143	0.8901

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2024-2025 save percentage

EVSV%: 2024-2025 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2024-2025 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2024-2025 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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