Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Ryan Miller 0.9155 246 201 0.9309 0.9602
Calvin Petersen 0.9274 248 196 0.9274 0.9541
Pekka Rinne 0.9191 439 364 0.9385 0.9505
Jaroslav Halak 0.9164 453 347 0.9360 0.9481
David Rittich 0.9121 343 284 0.9242 0.9472
Laurent Brossoit 0.9057 191 157 0.9372 0.9427
Frederik Andersen 0.9190 688 592 0.9317 0.9426
Curtis McElhinney 0.9097 271 225 0.9299 0.9422

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Casey DeSmith 0.9230 397 45 0.9244 0.9556 0.9159
Darcy Kuemper 0.9121 338 35 0.9142 0.9429 0.9011
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9181 412 87 0.9272 0.9425 0.9121
Devan Dubnyk 0.9165 545 97 0.9156 0.9381 0.9030
Martin Jones 0.9141 471 67 0.8917 0.9254 0.8819
Linus Ullmark 0.9193 230 25 0.9261 0.9200 0.9206
Mike McKenna 0.8878 124 24 0.8790 0.9167 0.8598
Semyon Varlamov 0.9168 508 107 0.9272 0.9159 0.9193
Corey Crawford 0.9183 460 80 0.9065 0.9125 0.8990
Mikko Koskinen 0.9080 284 45 0.9225 0.9111 0.9140
Pheonix Copley 0.8901 247 44 0.8988 0.8409 0.9050
Anton Khudobin 0.9151 349 56 0.9112 0.8393 0.9146
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9196 488 60 0.9119 0.8333 0.9153
Antti Niemi 0.9124 243 42 0.8930 0.8333 0.8991
James Reimer 0.9140 387 53 0.8941 0.8302 0.9039
Brian Elliott 0.9128 384 64 0.9115 0.8281 0.9211
Philipp Grubauer 0.9212 293 52 0.9044 0.8269 0.9102
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9070 271 34 0.8856 0.8235 0.8942
Ryan Miller 0.9155 246 39 0.9309 0.8205 0.9447
Aaron Dell 0.9177 272 33 0.9044 0.8182 0.9073
Curtis McElhinney 0.9097 271 32 0.9299 0.8125 0.9303
Calvin Petersen 0.9274 248 40 0.9274 0.8000 0.9398
Mike Smith 0.9123 367 45 0.8828 0.8000 0.8940
Chad Johnson 0.9093 191 25 0.8953 0.8000 0.9016
David Rittich 0.9121 343 49 0.9242 0.7959 0.9343
Braden Holtby 0.9192 528 62 0.9167 0.7903 0.9227
Anders Nilsson 0.9063 205 33 0.9024 0.7879 0.9187
Matt Murray 0.9131 317 46 0.8770 0.7826 0.8960
Calvin Pickard 0.9089 227 40 0.8634 0.7750 0.8882
Cam Ward 0.9086 373 44 0.8901 0.7500 0.9062
Cam Talbot 0.9165 424 50 0.8892 0.7200 0.9081
Petr Mrazek 0.9095 184 22 0.8804 0.6364 0.9126
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2018-2019 save percentage
EVSV%
2018-2019 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill