Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Cal Petersen 0.9293 283 227 0.9293 0.9559
Ryan Miller 0.9155 267 218 0.9288 0.9541
Pekka Rinne 0.9191 507 424 0.9349 0.9481
Jaroslav Halak 0.9163 497 378 0.9316 0.9444
Laurent Brossoit 0.9064 230 193 0.9348 0.9430
David Rittich 0.9101 357 295 0.9188 0.9424
Frederik Andersen 0.9190 770 671 0.9312 0.9404

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Darcy Kuemper 0.9121 338 35 0.9142 0.9429 0.9011
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9181 412 87 0.9272 0.9425 0.9121
Casey DeSmith 0.9222 467 52 0.9229 0.9423 0.9191
Devan Dubnyk 0.9162 627 106 0.9107 0.9245 0.9003
Mike McKenna 0.8878 124 24 0.8790 0.9167 0.8598
John Gibson 0.9236 789 155 0.9265 0.9097 0.9217
Pheonix Copley 0.8901 247 44 0.8988 0.8409 0.9050
Ryan Miller 0.9155 267 43 0.9288 0.8372 0.9398
Antti Niemi 0.9124 243 42 0.8930 0.8333 0.8991
Jonathan Quick 0.9161 198 30 0.8889 0.8333 0.9025
Brian Elliott 0.9128 384 64 0.9115 0.8281 0.9211
Philipp Grubauer 0.9212 293 52 0.9044 0.8269 0.9102
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9067 273 34 0.8828 0.8235 0.8915
Aaron Dell 0.9177 272 33 0.9044 0.8182 0.9073
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9191 568 67 0.9014 0.8060 0.9077
Curtis McElhinney 0.9093 323 36 0.9195 0.8056 0.9207
Mike Smith 0.9123 421 50 0.8836 0.8000 0.8935
James Reimer 0.9138 450 60 0.8933 0.8000 0.9056
Cal Petersen 0.9293 283 43 0.9293 0.7907 0.9413
Braden Holtby 0.9187 616 81 0.9075 0.7901 0.9168
David Rittich 0.9101 357 52 0.9188 0.7885 0.9304
Matt Murray 0.9131 317 46 0.8770 0.7826 0.8960
Calvin Pickard 0.9089 227 40 0.8634 0.7750 0.8882
Cam Talbot 0.9166 454 55 0.8921 0.7455 0.9080
Cam Ward 0.9086 402 47 0.8881 0.7447 0.9043
Anders Nilsson 0.9063 260 38 0.9038 0.7368 0.9247
Petr Mrazek 0.9099 218 30 0.8945 0.7333 0.9175
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2018-2019 save percentage
EVSV%
2018-2019 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill