Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

PlayerCSV%SAEVSASV%EVSV%
Cal Petersen0.92393552830.92390.9505
Ryan Miller0.91542942410.92180.9461
Laurent Brossoit0.91083422890.93860.9412

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

PlayerCSV%SAPKSASV%PKSV%ASV%
Mackenzie Blackwood0.9453201280.94530.96430.9275
Collin Delia0.9330116210.95690.95240.9425
Darcy Kuemper0.9115558620.90860.93550.8981
Mike McKenna0.8918292430.89730.93020.8843
Andrei Vasilevskiy0.91806761260.92310.92860.9113
Linus Ullmark0.9191450520.92220.92310.9165
Casey DeSmith0.9247733900.92630.92220.9226
Devan Dubnyk0.91628771410.91220.92200.9039
Laurent Brossoit0.9108342470.93860.91490.9295
Frederik Andersen0.91849651110.92330.83780.9248
Ryan Miller0.9154294470.92180.82980.9334
Brian Elliott0.9128384640.91150.82810.9211
David Rittich0.9129615810.92030.82720.9245
Pheonix Copley0.9069373510.91420.82350.9189
Philipp Grubauer0.9192516850.89920.82350.9062
Mike Smith0.9122552670.88950.82090.8956
Joonas Korpisalo0.9061335390.88360.82050.8908
Scott Darling0.9084233220.88410.81820.8860
Malcolm Subban0.9019190210.89470.80950.8981
James Reimer0.9137556720.89570.80560.9058
Braden Holtby0.91888381130.91170.80530.9196
Aaron Dell0.9137361450.88920.80000.8950
Petr Mrazek0.9098413550.90070.80000.9127
Cal Petersen0.9239355580.92390.79310.9369
Calvin Pickard0.9089227400.86340.77500.8882
Cam Talbot0.9161610710.89180.77460.9047
Antti Niemi0.9118371620.88140.77420.8990
Anders Nilsson0.9054353520.89520.76920.9106
Cam Ward0.9084590820.88810.75610.9053

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2018-2019 save percentage

EVSV%: 2018-2019 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill