Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

January 3, 2019 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Cal Petersen	0.9239	355	283	0.9239	0.9505
Ryan Miller	0.9154	294	241	0.9218	0.9461
Laurent Brossoit	0.9108	342	289	0.9386	0.9412

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Mackenzie Blackwood	0.9453	201	28	0.9453	0.9643	0.9275
Collin Delia	0.9330	116	21	0.9569	0.9524	0.9425
Darcy Kuemper	0.9115	558	62	0.9086	0.9355	0.8981
Mike McKenna	0.8918	292	43	0.8973	0.9302	0.8843
Andrei Vasilevskiy	0.9180	676	126	0.9231	0.9286	0.9113
Linus Ullmark	0.9191	450	52	0.9222	0.9231	0.9165
Casey DeSmith	0.9247	733	90	0.9263	0.9222	0.9226
Devan Dubnyk	0.9162	877	141	0.9122	0.9220	0.9039
Laurent Brossoit	0.9108	342	47	0.9386	0.9149	0.9295
Frederik Andersen	0.9184	965	111	0.9233	0.8378	0.9248
Ryan Miller	0.9154	294	47	0.9218	0.8298	0.9334
Brian Elliott	0.9128	384	64	0.9115	0.8281	0.9211
David Rittich	0.9129	615	81	0.9203	0.8272	0.9245
Pheonix Copley	0.9069	373	51	0.9142	0.8235	0.9189
Philipp Grubauer	0.9192	516	85	0.8992	0.8235	0.9062
Mike Smith	0.9122	552	67	0.8895	0.8209	0.8956
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9061	335	39	0.8836	0.8205	0.8908
Scott Darling	0.9084	233	22	0.8841	0.8182	0.8860
Malcolm Subban	0.9019	190	21	0.8947	0.8095	0.8981
James Reimer	0.9137	556	72	0.8957	0.8056	0.9058
Braden Holtby	0.9188	838	113	0.9117	0.8053	0.9196
Aaron Dell	0.9137	361	45	0.8892	0.8000	0.8950
Petr Mrazek	0.9098	413	55	0.9007	0.8000	0.9127
Cal Petersen	0.9239	355	58	0.9239	0.7931	0.9369
Calvin Pickard	0.9089	227	40	0.8634	0.7750	0.8882
Cam Talbot	0.9161	610	71	0.8918	0.7746	0.9047
Antti Niemi	0.9118	371	62	0.8814	0.7742	0.8990
Anders Nilsson	0.9054	353	52	0.8952	0.7692	0.9106
Cam Ward	0.9084	590	82	0.8881	0.7561	0.9053

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2018-2019 save percentage

EVSV%: 2018-2019 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

Comments (0)

In order to leave a comment, you must be a registered user at our website and logged in.

Older posts Newer posts