Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

Features

The latest fantasy hockey advice and analysis.

Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Cal Petersen 0.9239 355 283 0.9239 0.9505
Ryan Miller 0.9154 294 241 0.9218 0.9461
Laurent Brossoit 0.9108 342 289 0.9386 0.9412

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9453 201 28 0.9453 0.9643 0.9275
Collin Delia 0.9330 116 21 0.9569 0.9524 0.9425
Darcy Kuemper 0.9115 558 62 0.9086 0.9355 0.8981
Mike McKenna 0.8918 292 43 0.8973 0.9302 0.8843
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9180 676 126 0.9231 0.9286 0.9113
Linus Ullmark 0.9191 450 52 0.9222 0.9231 0.9165
Casey DeSmith 0.9247 733 90 0.9263 0.9222 0.9226
Devan Dubnyk 0.9162 877 141 0.9122 0.9220 0.9039
Laurent Brossoit 0.9108 342 47 0.9386 0.9149 0.9295
Frederik Andersen 0.9184 965 111 0.9233 0.8378 0.9248
Ryan Miller 0.9154 294 47 0.9218 0.8298 0.9334
Brian Elliott 0.9128 384 64 0.9115 0.8281 0.9211
David Rittich 0.9129 615 81 0.9203 0.8272 0.9245
Pheonix Copley 0.9069 373 51 0.9142 0.8235 0.9189
Philipp Grubauer 0.9192 516 85 0.8992 0.8235 0.9062
Mike Smith 0.9122 552 67 0.8895 0.8209 0.8956
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9061 335 39 0.8836 0.8205 0.8908
Scott Darling 0.9084 233 22 0.8841 0.8182 0.8860
Malcolm Subban 0.9019 190 21 0.8947 0.8095 0.8981
James Reimer 0.9137 556 72 0.8957 0.8056 0.9058
Braden Holtby 0.9188 838 113 0.9117 0.8053 0.9196
Aaron Dell 0.9137 361 45 0.8892 0.8000 0.8950
Petr Mrazek 0.9098 413 55 0.9007 0.8000 0.9127
Cal Petersen 0.9239 355 58 0.9239 0.7931 0.9369
Calvin Pickard 0.9089 227 40 0.8634 0.7750 0.8882
Cam Talbot 0.9161 610 71 0.8918 0.7746 0.9047
Antti Niemi 0.9118 371 62 0.8814 0.7742 0.8990
Anders Nilsson 0.9054 353 52 0.8952 0.7692 0.9106
Cam Ward 0.9084 590 82 0.8881 0.7561 0.9053
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2018-2019 save percentage
EVSV%
2018-2019 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill