Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

March 14, 2019 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Cal Petersen	0.9239	355	283	0.9239	0.9505
Kevin Boyle	0.9281	139	116	0.9281	0.9397
Ryan Miller	0.9155	461	380	0.9241	0.9395
Jordan Binnington	0.9268	556	478	0.9281	0.9393

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Andrei Vasilevskiy	0.9205	1433	222	0.9309	0.9234	0.9203
Mike McKenna	0.8904	316	47	0.8924	0.9149	0.8822
Anders Nilsson	0.9060	908	113	0.9042	0.8407	0.9077
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9075	562	62	0.8986	0.8387	0.9015
James Reimer	0.9136	920	111	0.9022	0.8378	0.9056
Jonathan Quick	0.9147	1110	147	0.8910	0.8367	0.8982
Braden Holtby	0.9181	1531	205	0.9092	0.8341	0.9125
Jimmy Howard	0.9140	1405	202	0.9075	0.8317	0.9127
Philipp Grubauer	0.9183	750	123	0.9013	0.8293	0.9085
Alex Stalock	0.9085	427	76	0.8946	0.8289	0.9002
Mike Smith	0.9121	920	124	0.8957	0.8226	0.9008
Malcolm Subban	0.9033	367	39	0.9019	0.8205	0.9036
Petr Mrazek	0.9102	902	122	0.9080	0.8197	0.9167
Scott Darling	0.9084	233	22	0.8841	0.8182	0.8860
Michael Hutchinson	0.9077	239	32	0.8870	0.8125	0.8970
Calvin Pickard	0.9082	347	57	0.8732	0.8070	0.8874
Cam Talbot	0.9154	937	122	0.8943	0.8033	0.9039
Michal Neuvirth	0.9104	184	30	0.8587	0.8000	0.8686
Antti Niemi	0.9117	539	84	0.8868	0.7976	0.8990
Cam Ward	0.9082	998	137	0.8928	0.7956	0.9027
Aaron Dell	0.9118	506	63	0.8893	0.7937	0.8979
Cal Petersen	0.9239	355	58	0.9239	0.7931	0.9369

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2018-2019 save percentage

EVSV%: 2018-2019 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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