Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Cal Petersen 0.9239 355 283 0.9239 0.9505
Kevin Boyle 0.9281 139 116 0.9281 0.9397
Ryan Miller 0.9155 461 380 0.9241 0.9395
Jordan Binnington 0.9268 556 478 0.9281 0.9393

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9205 1433 222 0.9309 0.9234 0.9203
Mike McKenna 0.8904 316 47 0.8924 0.9149 0.8822
Anders Nilsson 0.9060 908 113 0.9042 0.8407 0.9077
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9075 562 62 0.8986 0.8387 0.9015
James Reimer 0.9136 920 111 0.9022 0.8378 0.9056
Jonathan Quick 0.9147 1110 147 0.8910 0.8367 0.8982
Braden Holtby 0.9181 1531 205 0.9092 0.8341 0.9125
Jimmy Howard 0.9140 1405 202 0.9075 0.8317 0.9127
Philipp Grubauer 0.9183 750 123 0.9013 0.8293 0.9085
Alex Stalock 0.9085 427 76 0.8946 0.8289 0.9002
Mike Smith 0.9121 920 124 0.8957 0.8226 0.9008
Malcolm Subban 0.9033 367 39 0.9019 0.8205 0.9036
Petr Mrazek 0.9102 902 122 0.9080 0.8197 0.9167
Scott Darling 0.9084 233 22 0.8841 0.8182 0.8860
Michael Hutchinson 0.9077 239 32 0.8870 0.8125 0.8970
Calvin Pickard 0.9082 347 57 0.8732 0.8070 0.8874
Cam Talbot 0.9154 937 122 0.8943 0.8033 0.9039
Michal Neuvirth 0.9104 184 30 0.8587 0.8000 0.8686
Antti Niemi 0.9117 539 84 0.8868 0.7976 0.8990
Cam Ward 0.9082 998 137 0.8928 0.7956 0.9027
Aaron Dell 0.9118 506 63 0.8893 0.7937 0.8979
Cal Petersen 0.9239 355 58 0.9239 0.7931 0.9369
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2018-2019 save percentage
EVSV%
2018-2019 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill