Skip to Content

Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

March 28, 2019   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments


Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Cal Petersen0.92393552830.92390.9505
Jordan Binnington0.92937036000.93030.9400
Kevin Boyle0.92811391160.92810.9397

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Andrei Vasilevskiy0.919716242520.92670.91670.9178
Mike McKenna0.8904316470.89240.91490.8822
David Rittich0.909011711570.91120.84080.9155
James Reimer0.91349291110.89990.83780.9032
Henrik Lundqvist0.918516282460.90720.83740.9111
Anders Nilsson0.906610191270.90680.83460.9108
Jonathan Quick0.914312351590.88830.83020.8964
Braden Holtby0.918017072230.90980.82960.9131
Petr Mrazek0.910510111340.91000.82840.9168
Jimmy Howard0.914015172140.90840.82710.9145
Mike Smith0.912210071380.89870.82610.9033
Alex Stalock0.9081447790.89260.82280.8993
Scott Darling0.9084233220.88410.81820.8860
Joonas Korpisalo0.9071617660.89790.81820.9027
Michael Hutchinson0.9077239320.88700.81250.8970
Malcolm Subban0.9028527580.90130.81030.9045
Calvin Pickard0.9082347570.87320.80700.8874
Cam Talbot0.91549371220.89430.80330.9039
Michal Neuvirth0.9104184300.85870.80000.8686
Antti Niemi0.9117539840.88680.79760.8990
Cam Ward0.90829981370.89280.79560.9027
Cal Petersen0.9239355580.92390.79310.9369
Sam Montembeault0.8821246240.88210.79170.8856
Aaron Dell0.9105557750.88690.77330.8982


CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2018-2019 save percentage

EVSV%: 2018-2019 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

Comments (0)

Leave a comment

In order to leave a comment, you must be a registered user at our website and logged in.

Login | Register