Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

March 28, 2019 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Cal Petersen	0.9239	355	283	0.9239	0.9505
Jordan Binnington	0.9293	703	600	0.9303	0.9400
Kevin Boyle	0.9281	139	116	0.9281	0.9397

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Andrei Vasilevskiy	0.9197	1624	252	0.9267	0.9167	0.9178
Mike McKenna	0.8904	316	47	0.8924	0.9149	0.8822
David Rittich	0.9090	1171	157	0.9112	0.8408	0.9155
James Reimer	0.9134	929	111	0.8999	0.8378	0.9032
Henrik Lundqvist	0.9185	1628	246	0.9072	0.8374	0.9111
Anders Nilsson	0.9066	1019	127	0.9068	0.8346	0.9108
Jonathan Quick	0.9143	1235	159	0.8883	0.8302	0.8964
Braden Holtby	0.9180	1707	223	0.9098	0.8296	0.9131
Petr Mrazek	0.9105	1011	134	0.9100	0.8284	0.9168
Jimmy Howard	0.9140	1517	214	0.9084	0.8271	0.9145
Mike Smith	0.9122	1007	138	0.8987	0.8261	0.9033
Alex Stalock	0.9081	447	79	0.8926	0.8228	0.8993
Scott Darling	0.9084	233	22	0.8841	0.8182	0.8860
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9071	617	66	0.8979	0.8182	0.9027
Michael Hutchinson	0.9077	239	32	0.8870	0.8125	0.8970
Malcolm Subban	0.9028	527	58	0.9013	0.8103	0.9045
Calvin Pickard	0.9082	347	57	0.8732	0.8070	0.8874
Cam Talbot	0.9154	937	122	0.8943	0.8033	0.9039
Michal Neuvirth	0.9104	184	30	0.8587	0.8000	0.8686
Antti Niemi	0.9117	539	84	0.8868	0.7976	0.8990
Cam Ward	0.9082	998	137	0.8928	0.7956	0.9027
Cal Petersen	0.9239	355	58	0.9239	0.7931	0.9369
Sam Montembeault	0.8821	246	24	0.8821	0.7917	0.8856
Aaron Dell	0.9105	557	75	0.8869	0.7733	0.8982

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2018-2019 save percentage

EVSV%: 2018-2019 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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