Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Cal Petersen 0.9239 355 283 0.9239 0.9505
Jordan Binnington 0.9293 703 600 0.9303 0.9400
Kevin Boyle 0.9281 139 116 0.9281 0.9397

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9197 1624 252 0.9267 0.9167 0.9178
Mike McKenna 0.8904 316 47 0.8924 0.9149 0.8822
David Rittich 0.9090 1171 157 0.9112 0.8408 0.9155
James Reimer 0.9134 929 111 0.8999 0.8378 0.9032
Henrik Lundqvist 0.9185 1628 246 0.9072 0.8374 0.9111
Anders Nilsson 0.9066 1019 127 0.9068 0.8346 0.9108
Jonathan Quick 0.9143 1235 159 0.8883 0.8302 0.8964
Braden Holtby 0.9180 1707 223 0.9098 0.8296 0.9131
Petr Mrazek 0.9105 1011 134 0.9100 0.8284 0.9168
Jimmy Howard 0.9140 1517 214 0.9084 0.8271 0.9145
Mike Smith 0.9122 1007 138 0.8987 0.8261 0.9033
Alex Stalock 0.9081 447 79 0.8926 0.8228 0.8993
Scott Darling 0.9084 233 22 0.8841 0.8182 0.8860
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9071 617 66 0.8979 0.8182 0.9027
Michael Hutchinson 0.9077 239 32 0.8870 0.8125 0.8970
Malcolm Subban 0.9028 527 58 0.9013 0.8103 0.9045
Calvin Pickard 0.9082 347 57 0.8732 0.8070 0.8874
Cam Talbot 0.9154 937 122 0.8943 0.8033 0.9039
Michal Neuvirth 0.9104 184 30 0.8587 0.8000 0.8686
Antti Niemi 0.9117 539 84 0.8868 0.7976 0.8990
Cam Ward 0.9082 998 137 0.8928 0.7956 0.9027
Cal Petersen 0.9239 355 58 0.9239 0.7931 0.9369
Sam Montembeault 0.8821 246 24 0.8821 0.7917 0.8856
Aaron Dell 0.9105 557 75 0.8869 0.7733 0.8982
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2018-2019 save percentage
EVSV%
2018-2019 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2018-2019 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2018-2019 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill