Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Pekka Rinne 0.9187 223 196 0.9372 0.9643
Tuukka Rask 0.9217 203 154 0.9507 0.9610
Linus Ullmark 0.9117 190 152 0.9316 0.9474

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Robin Lehner 0.9183 219 33 0.9361 0.9697 0.9191
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9133 360 74 0.9278 0.9595 0.9109
Alexandar Georgiev 0.9159 145 33 0.9241 0.9394 0.9099
Mike Smith 0.9122 210 47 0.9190 0.9362 0.9066
Martin Jones 0.9108 292 64 0.8904 0.9219 0.8841
Matt Murray 0.9178 286 25 0.9231 0.9200 0.9138
Carter Hutton 0.9136 244 37 0.9262 0.9189 0.9211
Jacob Markstrom 0.9094 248 45 0.9153 0.9111 0.9116
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9097 139 30 0.8705 0.8333 0.8861
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9157 316 41 0.9209 0.8293 0.9254
Curtis McElhinney 0.9089 159 29 0.8994 0.8276 0.9062
Keith Kinkaid 0.9060 72 21 0.8750 0.8095 0.8982
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9047 280 34 0.8857 0.7941 0.9023
Jonathan Bernier 0.9128 183 28 0.8852 0.7857 0.8999
Jonathan Quick 0.9132 254 60 0.8583 0.7833 0.8777
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9191 268 36 0.9104 0.7778 0.9237
Pekka Rinne 0.9187 223 24 0.9372 0.7500 0.9479
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2019-2020 save percentage
EVSV%
2019-2020 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2019-2020 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2019-2020 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill