Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Jake Allen	0.9130	149	113	0.9396	0.9646
Andrei Vasilevskiy	0.9195	281	236	0.9359	0.9449
Chris Driedger	0.9343	158	138	0.9367	0.9420

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Devan Dubnyk	0.9146	156	37	0.9167	0.9730	0.8924
Jonathan Quick	0.9130	166	28	0.8675	0.9643	0.8465
Philipp Grubauer	0.9207	229	47	0.9345	0.9574	0.9154
Cam Talbot	0.9154	162	22	0.9198	0.9545	0.9044
John Gibson	0.9182	305	45	0.9180	0.9333	0.9099
Brian Elliott	0.9118	140	29	0.9286	0.9310	0.9173
Linus Ullmark	0.9116	187	38	0.9144	0.9211	0.9058
Darcy Kuemper	0.9177	286	63	0.9126	0.9206	0.9015
Malcolm Subban	0.8998	103	24	0.9126	0.9167	0.9057
Semyon Varlamov	0.9157	219	22	0.9315	0.9091	0.9224
Laurent Brossoit	0.9068	110	21	0.9182	0.9048	0.9122
Robin Lehner	0.9177	136	31	0.8897	0.9032	0.8877
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9074	272	28	0.9007	0.8214	0.9027
Jake Oettinger	0.9187	123	22	0.9187	0.8182	0.9265
Martin Jones	0.9089	196	26	0.8776	0.8077	0.8888
Pekka Rinne	0.9172	165	36	0.9091	0.8056	0.9249
James Reimer	0.9130	162	35	0.8827	0.8000	0.8992
Thomas Greiss	0.9142	281	48	0.9039	0.7917	0.9172
Frederik Andersen	0.9162	302	52	0.9040	0.7885	0.9215
Marcus Hogberg	0.8923	135	21	0.8370	0.7619	0.8553
Ville Husso	0.8696	92	24	0.8696	0.7500	0.9028
Juuse Saros	0.9159	227	45	0.8811	0.7333	0.9137
Carter Hart	0.9130	292	41	0.8973	0.7317	0.9130
Tristan Jarry	0.9090	175	21	0.8571	0.6667	0.8815