Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Jake Allen 0.9130 149 113 0.9396 0.9646
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9195 281 236 0.9359 0.9449
Chris Driedger 0.9343 158 138 0.9367 0.9420

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Devan Dubnyk 0.9146 156 37 0.9167 0.9730 0.8924
Jonathan Quick 0.9130 166 28 0.8675 0.9643 0.8465
Philipp Grubauer 0.9207 229 47 0.9345 0.9574 0.9154
Cam Talbot 0.9154 162 22 0.9198 0.9545 0.9044
John Gibson 0.9182 305 45 0.9180 0.9333 0.9099
Brian Elliott 0.9118 140 29 0.9286 0.9310 0.9173
Linus Ullmark 0.9116 187 38 0.9144 0.9211 0.9058
Darcy Kuemper 0.9177 286 63 0.9126 0.9206 0.9015
Malcolm Subban 0.8998 103 24 0.9126 0.9167 0.9057
Semyon Varlamov 0.9157 219 22 0.9315 0.9091 0.9224
Laurent Brossoit 0.9068 110 21 0.9182 0.9048 0.9122
Robin Lehner 0.9177 136 31 0.8897 0.9032 0.8877
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9074 272 28 0.9007 0.8214 0.9027
Jake Oettinger 0.9187 123 22 0.9187 0.8182 0.9265
Martin Jones 0.9089 196 26 0.8776 0.8077 0.8888
Pekka Rinne 0.9172 165 36 0.9091 0.8056 0.9249
James Reimer 0.9130 162 35 0.8827 0.8000 0.8992
Thomas Greiss 0.9142 281 48 0.9039 0.7917 0.9172
Frederik Andersen 0.9162 302 52 0.9040 0.7885 0.9215
Marcus Hogberg 0.8923 135 21 0.8370 0.7619 0.8553
Ville Husso 0.8696 92 24 0.8696 0.7500 0.9028
Juuse Saros 0.9159 227 45 0.8811 0.7333 0.9137
Carter Hart 0.9130 292 41 0.8973 0.7317 0.9130
Tristan Jarry 0.9090 175 21 0.8571 0.6667 0.8815
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2020-2021 save percentage
EVSV%
2020-2021 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2020-2021 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2020-2021 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill