Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9199 622 523 0.9325 0.9426

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Jaroslav Halak 0.9165 319 58 0.9185 0.9483 0.9088
Devan Dubnyk 0.9144 379 60 0.9077 0.9333 0.8994
Philipp Grubauer 0.9205 557 90 0.9246 0.9333 0.9134
Cam Talbot 0.9153 333 48 0.9159 0.9167 0.9063
Laurent Brossoit 0.9076 203 35 0.9212 0.9143 0.9173
Antti Raanta 0.9201 317 56 0.9117 0.9107 0.9053
Jonathan Quick 0.9131 325 44 0.8985 0.9091 0.8901
Carter Hutton 0.9093 302 33 0.8841 0.9091 0.8789
Jake Allen 0.9129 296 65 0.9223 0.9077 0.9202
Keith Kinkaid 0.9051 105 21 0.9048 0.9048 0.9048
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9131 547 52 0.9360 0.9038 0.9266
Robin Lehner 0.9177 136 31 0.8897 0.9032 0.8877
Curtis McElhinney 0.9081 151 30 0.8742 0.9000 0.8695
Tristan Jarry 0.9121 597 88 0.9062 0.8295 0.9099
Ville Husso 0.8794 257 52 0.8794 0.8269 0.8877
Carey Price 0.9172 519 102 0.9094 0.8235 0.9198
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9133 463 67 0.9028 0.8209 0.9097
John Gibson 0.9165 639 89 0.8936 0.8202 0.9018
Kevin Lankinen 0.9157 688 103 0.9157 0.8155 0.9255
Pekka Rinne 0.9167 542 91 0.8985 0.8132 0.9087
Jonathan Bernier 0.9126 501 62 0.9142 0.8065 0.9212
Carter Hart 0.9094 475 77 0.8842 0.8052 0.8926
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9066 615 71 0.8992 0.8028 0.9052
Martin Jones 0.9083 449 74 0.8842 0.7973 0.8957
Thomas Greiss 0.9130 411 63 0.8832 0.7937 0.8933
Frederik Andersen 0.9157 622 80 0.9003 0.7875 0.9113
Jake Oettinger 0.9169 325 37 0.9169 0.7838 0.9219
David Rittich 0.9077 281 32 0.9039 0.7813 0.9145
Juuse Saros 0.9162 323 55 0.8947 0.7636 0.9157
Marcus Hogberg 0.8924 220 28 0.8591 0.7500 0.8734
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2020-2021 save percentage
EVSV%
2020-2021 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2020-2021 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2020-2021 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill