Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9201 691 575 0.9334 0.9461

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Jaroslav Halak 0.9166 343 60 0.9213 0.9500 0.9139
Keith Kinkaid 0.9052 153 27 0.9085 0.9259 0.9020
Philipp Grubauer 0.9213 633 107 0.9305 0.9252 0.9208
Antti Raanta 0.9201 379 64 0.9129 0.9219 0.9046
Cam Talbot 0.9154 413 64 0.9177 0.9219 0.9073
Laurent Brossoit 0.9076 224 36 0.9196 0.9167 0.9150
Jonathan Quick 0.9131 381 48 0.8976 0.9167 0.8880
Robin Lehner 0.9177 177 35 0.8983 0.9143 0.8943
Jake Allen 0.9128 324 66 0.9198 0.9091 0.9165
Devan Dubnyk 0.9142 436 75 0.8991 0.9067 0.8948
Jonas Johansson 0.8872 239 32 0.8828 0.9063 0.8791
Calvin Petersen 0.9244 554 90 0.9260 0.9000 0.9203
Ryan Miller 0.9145 308 41 0.8799 0.8293 0.8867
Braden Holtby 0.9153 406 52 0.8941 0.8269 0.8999
Tristan Jarry 0.9126 667 92 0.9085 0.8261 0.9121
Carey Price 0.9170 567 108 0.9030 0.8241 0.9126
Pekka Rinne 0.9167 572 95 0.8986 0.8211 0.9073
Jonathan Bernier 0.9128 523 67 0.9178 0.8209 0.9233
John Gibson 0.9165 639 89 0.8936 0.8202 0.9018
Joey Daccord 0.8937 214 22 0.8972 0.8182 0.8988
Martin Jones 0.9089 525 82 0.8971 0.8171 0.9059
David Rittich 0.9080 314 37 0.9076 0.8108 0.9141
Kevin Lankinen 0.9154 745 109 0.9154 0.8073 0.9256
Carter Hart 0.9065 576 93 0.8750 0.8065 0.8845
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9067 670 76 0.9000 0.8026 0.9058
Jake Oettinger 0.9133 346 40 0.9133 0.8000 0.9167
Thomas Greiss 0.9131 496 71 0.8891 0.7887 0.8988
Frederik Andersen 0.9154 640 83 0.8969 0.7831 0.9084
Marcus Hogberg 0.8924 220 28 0.8591 0.7500 0.8734
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2020-2021 save percentage
EVSV%
2020-2021 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2020-2021 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2020-2021 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill