Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Jack Campbell 0.9187 164 143 0.9451 0.9510
Casey DeSmith 0.9197 340 278 0.9294 0.9460
Juuse Saros 0.9190 529 429 0.9244 0.9441
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9199 772 637 0.9301 0.9435

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Jaroslav Halak 0.9164 428 73 0.9159 0.9589 0.9056
Keith Kinkaid 0.9046 175 29 0.8914 0.9310 0.8839
Cam Talbot 0.9158 519 72 0.9249 0.9306 0.9136
Philipp Grubauer 0.9211 701 123 0.9287 0.9268 0.9185
Antti Raanta 0.9201 379 64 0.9129 0.9219 0.9046
Robin Lehner 0.9178 202 36 0.9059 0.9167 0.9007
Jake Allen 0.9128 324 66 0.9198 0.9091 0.9165
Calvin Petersen 0.9229 582 97 0.9227 0.9072 0.9160
Jonas Johansson 0.8872 239 32 0.8828 0.9063 0.8791
Jonathan Quick 0.9130 405 53 0.8938 0.9057 0.8856
Devan Dubnyk 0.9141 462 84 0.8983 0.9048 0.8942
Laurent Brossoit 0.9071 257 40 0.9144 0.9000 0.9121
Kevin Lankinen 0.9214 852 123 0.9214 0.8293 0.9276
John Gibson 0.9167 673 93 0.8975 0.8280 0.9044
Carey Price 0.9171 584 110 0.9058 0.8273 0.9145
Braden Holtby 0.9153 406 52 0.8941 0.8269 0.8999
David Rittich 0.9079 344 40 0.9070 0.8250 0.9113
Pekka Rinne 0.9167 601 96 0.9002 0.8229 0.9080
Jonathan Bernier 0.9128 523 67 0.9178 0.8209 0.9233
Martin Jones 0.9088 622 89 0.8971 0.8202 0.9040
Joey Daccord 0.8937 214 22 0.8972 0.8182 0.8988
Dustin Tokarski 0.9027 109 21 0.8899 0.8095 0.9107
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9064 703 76 0.8990 0.8026 0.9042
Jake Oettinger 0.9089 395 44 0.9089 0.7955 0.9125
Thomas Greiss 0.9129 528 76 0.8883 0.7895 0.8979
Carter Hart 0.9050 587 97 0.8688 0.7835 0.8824
Frederik Andersen 0.9154 640 83 0.8969 0.7831 0.9084
Marcus Hogberg 0.8924 220 28 0.8591 0.7500 0.8734
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2020-2021 save percentage
EVSV%
2020-2021 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2020-2021 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2020-2021 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill